Experts expect European agroforestry systems to stabilize crop yields under climate change
専門家は、欧州のアグロフォレストリーが気候変動下で作物収量を安定化すると予測 (AI 翻訳)
Christina den Hond‐Vaccaro, Klaus Jarosch, Sonja Kay, Yafei Li, Félix Herzog
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
欧州の農業システムは気候変動の影響を受けており、アグロフォレストリー（樹木や低木を農業に統合する方法）が持続可能で回復力のあるアプローチとして注目されています。60人の専門家の評価に基づき、アグロフォレストリーは非アグロフォレストリーと比較して収量を安定させ、2050年までに収量減少が予測される中で、特に中央・東欧でその差が大きいことが示されました。この研究は、アグロフォレストリーの気候変動適応における有効性を定量的に評価する新しい手法を提供します。
English
Climate change threatens European agriculture, and agroforestry (integrating trees/shrubs) is seen as a resilient approach. Based on 60 expert assessments, agroforestry systems show stable yields (0% change) compared to non-agroforestry (-8% observed, -20% expected by 2050), with the largest gap in Central and Eastern Europe. The study provides a novel quantitative approach to assess agroforestry's benefits for climate adaptation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、気候変動による農業への影響が懸念されており、アグロフォレストリーは国土の70%が森林である日本において、農業と森林の共生モデルとして注目される可能性があります。ただし、日本の農業政策やSSBJなどの開示制度との直接的な関連は薄く、参考情報としての価値が中心です。
In the global GX context
This study provides empirical evidence on agroforestry's resilience to climate change, relevant to global climate adaptation strategies and sustainable agriculture. It supports policy discussions on land-use practices that enhance food security under climate stress, aligning with EU's Green Deal and climate adaptation goals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides expert-based quantitative estimates of agroforestry yield resilience, useful for climate risk modeling and agricultural adaptation research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers evidence for farmers and agribusinesses considering agroforestry as a climate adaptation strategy to stabilize yields.
🏛政策担当者:Informs agricultural and climate adaptation policies by highlighting agroforestry's potential to mitigate climate-related yield losses.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Climate change is having an impact on European agricultural systems and will increasingly do so into the future. Agroforestry, the integration of trees or shrubs in agricultural production systems, has been repeatedly described as a productive, sustainable, and resilient approach to food production. Quantifying agricultural benefits of agroforestry in the context of resilience to current and future climate change in Europe is challenging. To fill this knowledge gap, we gathered the assessments of 60 experts on the resilience of different forms of agroforestry (silvoarable, silvopastoral, and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips, and windbreaks) in diverse European regions to various climate change variables. Across all regions and independently of the agroforestry system type, agroforestry systems were observed to show stable yields (0% change in yield compared to −8% in non-agroforestry systems). Experts expected yields in non-agroforestry to decline by 20% until 2050, while agroforestry systems were expected to maintain stable yields (0% change). This gap was highest in Central and Eastern Europe. In north-western and northern Europe, small yield increases were expected in agroforestry systems. Silvopastoral, silvoarable, and systems with hedgerows, riparian buffer strips, and windbreaks were similar in terms of observed and expected yield changes. The quality of saleable agricultural products until 2050 was estimated to be reduced in non-agroforestry systems, particularly in arable and hedgeless systems. Heavy precipitation events, prolonged drought, late frost, summer heat waves, and hail were the main threats by climate change–related threats listed by experts. Our online expert study is a novel approach to quantify agricultural benefits and emphasizes a general resilience of agroforestry systems to climate change impacts, regardless of the exact system type and climate region.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-026-01119-5first seen 2026-08-05 04:46:36
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