Total Cost of Ownership-Driven Fuel Transition Under the IMO Net-Zero Framework: Evidence from the Shanghai–Los Angeles Green Shipping Corridor
IMOネットゼロ枠組み下での総保有コスト主導の燃料転換：上海-ロサンゼルスグリーン海運回廊からのエビデンス (AI 翻訳)
Jialiang Liu, Yubing Wang, Dan Wang, Lei Dai
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
IMOネットゼロ枠組み下で、上海-ロサンゼルス回廊における船舶燃料転換をTCO最適化モデルで分析。炭素ペナルティが閾値に近づく行動を促進し、LNGが支配的燃料として維持され、アンモニアへの転換は2043年まで遅延。ペナルティ強化で2030年に前倒しされるが、絶対ゼロ排出は達成されない。
English
This study develops a TCO optimization model to analyze fuel transition under IMO regulations along the Shanghai-LA corridor. Results show that tiered carbon penalties incentivize fleets to operate near compliance thresholds, keeping LNG dominant and delaying ammonia crossover until 2043. Intensified penalties advance the crossover to 2030 but full zero-emission is not achieved due to residual fossil dependency.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の海運業界はIMO規制対応が急務であり、本論文は炭素ペナルティと燃料選択の関係を定量化。日本が推進するアンモニア燃料の導入時期やLNGからの移行戦略に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence from a major trade corridor on how carbon penalty design influences fuel transition in shipping. It highlights the risk of penalty avoidance behavior delaying zero-carbon fuel adoption, relevant for global IMO policy discussions and corporate transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The TCO-MNL modeling framework and findings on penalty avoidance behavior offer a novel approach for analyzing technology diffusion under carbon regulation.
🏢実務担当者:Shipping companies and fuel suppliers can use the corridor-specific TCO crossover timelines to inform investment decisions in LNG, ammonia, and bunkering infrastructure.
🏛政策担当者:IMO and national regulators should consider that tiered penalty structures may delay full compliance; intensified penalties are needed to accelerate zero-carbon fuel uptake.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The IMO Net-Zero Framework and its carbon regulations impose binding constraints on fuel selection and fleet evolution. A techno-economic optimization model is developed to quantify this interaction along the Shanghai–Los Angeles green shipping corridor. The framework integrates vessel-level Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) with a Multinomial Logit formulation to simulate fleet diffusion, minimizing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) over 2026–2050. The results identify a persistent marginal compliance regime driven by the tiered carbon penalty structure. Rather than achieving full compliance, fleets systematically position their Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (GFI) near the penalty threshold, where limited penalties remain economically preferable to high-cost zero-carbon fuels. This behavior sustains fossil LNG as the dominant transitional option and delays the TCO crossover with ammonia until 2043. Under intensified penalties, the crossover advances to approximately 2030, triggering rapid cost escalation for LNG and eliminating the economic viability of drop-in biofuel strategies. Across all scenarios, absolute zero GHG emissions are not achieved due to residual fossil dependence and upstream Well-to-Wake (WTW) emissions. The transition is therefore bounded by the interaction between penalty avoidance behavior and the pace of Power-to-X fuel deployment. These findings indicate that carbon penalty levels determine the timing of decarbonization, while relative fuel prices govern technology selection, with direct implications for corridor-specific fuel infrastructure and investment decisions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/app16115692first seen 2026-06-06 05:33:59
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