ブルーカーボン生態系保護のための越境海洋政策における領域横断的リスクガバナンス：核廃水放出事例へのファジィAHP評価フレームワークの適用

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🔬研究者:越境外部性を多基準で重み付けするFAHP手順と、政策選好が基準依存で反転する点の実証例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:海洋・水産関連事業者は越境政策リスクを地政学と環境の複合リスクとして評価する視点を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:越境海洋政策の意思決定に、環境・空間・経済手段の補完性を踏まえた多基準評価の枠組みを提供する。

Introduction Blue carbon ecosystems sequester carbon at rates that dwarf most terrestrial forests yet occupy less than 0.5% of the global ocean surface, making their protection under transboundary marine policy shocks both ecologically imperative and analytically underserved. Unilateral marine policy decisions in one coastal state, whether discharging pollutants, restructuring fishery regimes, or altering spatial zoning, generate externalities that propagate simultaneously across political, economic, industrial, and environmental channels into the blue carbon systems of neighboring states. No existing risk assessment tool captures this cross-domain, transjurisdictional character in a single integrated procedure. Methods This study develops and applies a Cross-Domain Risk Management Procedure (CDRMP) calibrated explicitly to blue carbon governance contexts. Grounded in polycentric governance theory, ecosystem services economics, and a transboundary externality model, the CDRMP framework embeds 36 evaluation criteria constructed via Nominal Group Technique and weighted via Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) across 114 respondents from government, industry, and public constituencies. The framework is applied to Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear wastewater discharge into the Pacific Ocean as an illustrative transboundary case. Results Three principal findings emerge. First, geopolitical contestation (weight 0.197) nearly matches direct environmental contamination (0.206) in CDRMP severity, indicating that political governance instability and ecological contamination are mutually reinforcing rather than sequential risk events. Second, five of the seven highest-ranked criteria are blue-carbon-relevant, three of them blue-carbon-specific additions introduced by the ecological extension of the standard environmental domain, suggesting that frameworks without such calibration may systematically underdetect the most severe governance risks. Third, policy evaluation under optimistic, pessimistic, and equal-probabilities decision criteria shows no single policy dominating across all rules and analytical levels: marine environmental policy is preferred under two of three criteria at the dimension level and attains the single lowest aggregate deviation observed (0.856 under equal-probabilities), marine spatial policy is preferred under the pessimistic criterion at both levels, and marine economic policy is preferred under the optimistic criterion at the criterion level. Discussion The contingent pattern of policy preference is consistent with, though not a direct test of, complementary rather than substitutable governance roles across environmental, spatial, and economic instruments. The study contributes the first quantitatively operational CDRMP framework to the literatures on polycentric governance, blue carbon ecosystem services, and multi-criteria marine policy evaluation, providing coastal states with a replicable assessment procedure for transboundary marine policy risks.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1928781first seen 2026-10-23 05:20:11 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:55:35
• semanticscholar https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2026.1928781/pdffirst seen 2026-10-25 05:25:49 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:31:42