豪州における水資源を枯渇させないネイチャーポジティブ・ネットゼロ経路と持続可能な農食セクターの実現課題

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:土地利用最適化モデルで気候・生物多様性・水資源のトレードオフを同時評価する手法の実例として有用。

🏢実務担当者:農食・飲料・食品関連企業がTNFDや水リスク開示で流域レベルの制約をどう扱うかの示唆を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:ネットゼロとネイチャーポジティブ目標の同時達成には土地利用転換と水配分の政策設計が不可欠と示す。

Australia is committed to achieving net‐zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 and nature‐positive targets aligned with the Global Biodiversity Framework and Australia's National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. Both commitments require changes in land use and management (e.g., reforestation) which could compromise agricultural production and adversely impact water availability. This study assesses the potential of Australia's land sector to simultaneously deliver on its commitments to national net‐zero emissions and biodiversity goals, while meeting increasing domestic and export demand for agri‐food production, without depleting catchment‐scale environmental flows below sustainable limits. Using the Land‐Use Trade‐Offs model version 2 (LUTO2), we simulated land‐use and management pathways across Australia through to 2050 balancing national‐scale optimization coverage with fine‐scale spatial and temporal detail. Our results show that, under specific modeled scenarios and assumptions of policy support and technology adoption, ambitious GHG emissions and biodiversity targets could be theoretically achieved alongside rising agricultural demand. However, achieving the most ambitious targets in practice would require the conversion of 77.73 Mha of livestock land to non‐agricultural uses by 2050, alongside the implementation of agricultural management solutions across 97.49 Mha of cropland. Notably, non‐agricultural land uses such as Environmental plantings (mixed native species) emerged as critical for simultaneously delivering biodiversity and GHG emissions targets. These findings define a theoretical feasibility envelope for policymakers, landholders, environmental planners, and industry stakeholders, informing decisions about the type of changes in land‐use and management required to support a sustainable, productive, and economically viable transition toward a nature positive net‐zero future for Australia.

• semanticscholar https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2026EF008441first seen 2026-11-13 05:50:23