Future Electricity Demand in Asia: Policy Scenarios Using BAU Analysis
アジアにおける将来の電力需要：BAU分析を用いた政策シナリオ (AI 翻訳)
Tachrir Tachrir, H Hasddin, Muhamad Idham Handa, H Haydir, Villa Evadelvia Ginal Sambari, J Jasman, Eva Safitri Maladeni, Osu Oheputra Husen, Alfian Ishak, A Asrul
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は1993年から2022年のアジアの電力需給ギャップを分析し、2052年までの予測モデルを開発。BAUと追加努力の2シナリオを比較し、政策介入や技術改善があっても需要増加を完全には抑制できないことを示す。再生可能エネルギー導入とエネルギー効率向上の重要性を強調。
English
This study analyzes Asia's electricity supply-demand gap from 1993-2022 and forecasts to 2052 under BAU and Additional Efforts scenarios. Results show rising demand despite policy interventions, emphasizing the need for accelerated renewable deployment, energy efficiency, and grid infrastructure. Offers evidence-based insights for sustainable electricity strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
アジア全体の電力需要予測は日本のエネルギー政策立案や国際協力に参考となるが、日本固有のGX文脈（SSBJ、有報等）との直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
Provides a regional perspective on electricity demand growth and policy impacts, relevant to global energy transition discussions. However, lacks specific focus on disclosure frameworks or carbon pricing mechanisms central to GX.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful as a reference for long-term electricity demand modeling in Asia and scenario analysis methodologies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for energy efficiency and renewable energy planning, but less directly applicable to corporate disclosure teams.
🏛政策担当者:Relevant for policymakers in Asia designing electricity sector strategies with renewable and efficiency targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Electricity demand in Asia has grown substantially over the past three decades, creating a persistent imbalance between supply and consumption. This study analyzes long-term trends in the electricity supply–demand gap from 1993 to 2022 and develops forecasting models to support energy management and policy planning through 2052. Using quantitative time series methods, two scenarios are generated: Business as Usual (BAU) and Additional Efforts. The analysis shows that electricity demand will continue to rise across both scenarios, driven by industrial expansion and rapid urbanization. Although policy interventions and technological improvements help moderate growth, they are not sufficient to fully offset future demand pressures. The study underscores the importance of accelerating renewable energy deployment, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening transmission infrastructure. A short-term increase in efficiency-oriented efforts is essential for stabilizing the regional energy system. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and energy managers, offering an evidence-based foundation for designing sustainable electricity strategies that address Asia’s growing energy needs.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.31098/ijmesh.v10i1.3504first seen 2026-05-25 04:33:45 · last seen 2026-05-27 04:31:49
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