Self- and Cross-Cannibalization in Europe on the Path to Net Zero
欧州のネットゼロへの道における自己カニバリゼーションと相互カニバリゼーション (AI 翻訳)
Iacopo Savelli
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
欧州33カ国を対象に、再エネと蓄電池の利益カニバリゼーションを分析。再エネ容量10%増で再エネ利益は19%（2040年23%）減少するが、蓄電池は8%減にとどまる。再エネ増は蓄電池利益を15%押し上げ、短期的な投資ヘッジとなり得る。
English
This study models profit cannibalization among renewables (RES) and battery storage (BESS) in 33 European countries for 2030 and 2040. RES capacity increases by 10% reduce RES profits by 19-23%, while BESS profits drop only 8%. RES growth boosts BESS profits by 15%, offering a near-term hedge for hybrid investments.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
欧州の再エネ・蓄電導入戦略に直接示唆を与えるが、日本のFIT終了後の市場リスクや蓄電併設の経済性検討にも応用可能。
In the global GX context
Provides key insights for European energy transition investment and market design, particularly around the risk of profit erosion from rapid RES deployment and the complementary role of storage.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A novel application of cannibalization concepts to RES and BESS, with high-resolution modeling across Europe incorporating climate variability.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for energy project developers and investors to understand profit dynamics and hedging benefits of pairing RES with BESS.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the need for market mechanisms to manage self-cannibalization and support storage deployment for long-term net-zero goals.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study introduces the concepts of self-cannibalization and cross-cannibalization to analyze at a deeper level the co-evolution of the profit cannibalization dynamics for renewable energy sources (RES) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) while progressing toward net zero. We developed a high-resolution electricity market model comprising thirty-three European countries for 2030 and 2040, considering climate variability, outages, and different RES and BESS deployment levels. The results show that RES face severe self-cannibalization challenges, with a 10 percent capacity increase reducing RES profits by 19 percent in 2030 (23 percent in 2040), while BESS experiences only an 8 percent profit reduction. Notably, the cross-cannibalization effect of RES on BESS is beneficial, as 10 percent RES growth increases BESS profits by 15 percent in 2030. This can create a strategic incentive for pairing RES investment with BESS in the near term, as the beneficial cross-cannibalization can act as a financial “hedge” against RES profit erosion, even though this effect fades by 2040. Finally, we show that a 20 percent increase in RES capacity reduces market prices by 18 percent (2030) and 32 percent (2040) in Europe, on average, while BESS primarily reduces price volatility. JEL Classification : Q40, Energy: General; Q41, Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574261467508first seen 2026-07-29 06:30:11
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