Long term planning for a clean energy transition in South Africa’s Electricity Sector: An integrated MAED-OSeMOSYS Approach
南アフリカ電力部門におけるクリーンエネルギー移行の長期計画：統合MAED-OSeMOSYSアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Ben Kerwin, Neve Fields, Leigh Martindale, Jairo Quirós-Tortós
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、南アフリカの電力部門における2050年ネットゼロ達成に向けた長期計画を評価するため、MAED-OSeMOSYS統合フレームワークを開発した。結果は、再生可能エネルギー主体の電源構成（最適条件で75%、ネットゼロ制約下で94%）が技術的・経済的に実現可能であり、風力・太陽光が主体となり、2030年以降は蓄電池が重要な調整役を担うことを示した。また、現行の統合資源計画2023は短期的には整合するが、2050年目標には不十分であり、5つの政策提言を行った。
English
This study develops an integrated MAED-OSeMOSYS framework for South Africa's electricity sector to evaluate long-term pathways to Net Zero 2050. Results show that a renewables-led generation mix (75% under least-cost, 94% under net-zero constraint) is feasible and economic, with wind and solar PV dominating and battery storage playing a critical role from 2030. It finds that the current Integrated Resource Plan 2023 is consistent in the near term but insufficient for Net Zero 2050, and proposes five policy recommendations.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の電力部門でも石炭からの移行と再エネ拡大が課題であり、本論文の長期計画策定手法や蓄電池の役割評価は参考になる。ただし、南アフリカ特有の状況に基づくため、直接的な適用には注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global literature on long-term electricity sector planning in coal-dependent economies. It demonstrates the economic viability of renewables-led transitions and the need for expanded planning horizons to meet Net Zero targets. The integrated soft-linked modeling approach is relevant for other emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper provides a rigorous soft-linked demand-generation expansion planning model that can be adapted for other coal-dependent countries.
🏢実務担当者:Offers policy-relevant insights on how to align integrated resource plans with net-zero targets, especially regarding battery storage deployment.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the gap between current planning horizons and long-term net-zero goals, recommending extended planning to 2050 and stronger NDC targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
South Africa faces a critical challenge: meeting rapidly growing electricity demand while transitioning away from its coal-dominated power system to achieve Net Zero 2050. Although several studies have modelled South Africa's long-term electricity sector, none have applied a soft-linked demand-generation expansion planning framework and existing demand projections extending to 2050 rely on pre-COVID growth assumptions. This study addresses these gaps by developing an integrated annual-resolution MAED-OSeMOSYS framework to generate updated bottom-up electricity demand projections and evaluate least-cost electricity supply pathways from 2024 to 2050 across a baseline case and four policy-relevant scenarios. Results show that a renewables-led generation mix - reaching 75% under least-cost conditions and 94% under a Net Zero constraint - is both technically feasible and economically rational, with wind and solar PV dominating new capacity and battery storage playing an increasingly critical balancing role from 2030 onwards. The Integrated Resource Plan 2023 is broadly consistent with a least-cost transition in the near term, but its planning horizon is insufficient to deliver Net Zero 2050. Five policy recommendations are proposed, including a long-term capacity expansion plan to 2050, strengthened NDC emissions targets, and greater alignment between renewable deployment, grid expansion and international climate finance.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.33774/coe-2026-15jfrfirst seen 2026-06-12 04:52:17
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