持続可能な回復かカーボンリバウンドか：共通フロンティアSBMとLMDI分解による中国省級観光業の炭素排出効率
Sustainable Recovery or Carbon Rebound: Provincial Tourism Carbon Emission Efficiency in China Based on a Common-Frontier SBM and LMDI Decomposition (原題)
Wenqian Qi, Qinyuan Zhang, Naipeng Tom Bu, Mingyue Ma, Honggen Xiao, Yuxuan Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国省級観光業の炭素排出効率を共通フロンティアSBM（ undesirable output 付き）で推計し、Tapio脱カップリングとLMDI分解で要因を分析。国内観光の直接排出は2019年107.6Mtから2022年43.7Mtへ減少後、2024年101.0Mt・2025年約117Mtと2019年ピークを超えてリバウンド。活動量係数を固定すると規模効果が排出変化の91〜97%を説明し、実質炭素強度は2019年とほぼ不変。統計口径を調整すると効率変化は−0.013（p=0.84）で有意でなく、回復は規模主導のカーボンリバウンドで効率改善は検出されなかった。
English
Provincial tourism carbon emission efficiency in China is measured with a common-frontier SBM including undesirable outputs, paired with Tapio decoupling and LMDI decomposition. Direct operational emissions fell from 107.6 Mt (2019) to 43.7 Mt (2022) but rebounded to ~101 Mt (2024) and ~117 Mt (2025), exceeding the 2019 peak. With fixed activity coefficients, scale effects explain 91–97% of emission changes and real carbon intensity was essentially unchanged; after caliber adjustment the efficiency change is −0.013 (p=0.84), indicating a scale-driven carbon rebound without detectable efficiency gains.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
観光業の炭素効率とリバウンドを扱う実証手法は、日本の観光立国政策や自治体・事業者の脱炭素計画、Scope 3 算定における観光セクターの扱いに示唆を与える。ただし中国省級データ固有の口径問題が中心で、日本制度への直接接続は弱い。
In the global GX context
Adds sector-specific empirical evidence on tourism decarbonization and rebound effects, relevant to global disclosure work on Scope 3 and sectoral transition pathways where tourism is often under-modeled. The caliber-adjustment critique of provincial statistics is a useful methodological caution for emissions accounting more broadly.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:SBM・LMDI・脱カップリングを統合した枠組みと統計口径バイアスの扱いは、排出効率研究の手法設計に有用。
🏢実務担当者:観光・宿泊事業者は、排出削減が規模拡大に打ち消されるリバウンドリスクを自社の脱炭素目標設定で考慮すべき。
🏛政策担当者:観光振興と炭素削減の両立には、活動量拡大を前提とした強度目標だけでなく絶対量目標と統計品質管理が必要。
📄 Abstract（原文）
China’s dual-carbon commitment makes provincial tourism carbon efficiency a pressing policy question, but provincial evidence stops at 2019, and revenue-based estimates embed revenue in both the emission measure and the efficiency model. This study replaces revenue-share stripping coefficients with activity-volume coefficients for transport and accommodation and measures provincial tourism carbon emission efficiency with a common-frontier slacks-based measure (SBM) with undesirable outputs; because energy input is back-calculated from emissions, the score is a frontier-relative carbon-productivity measure. Tapio decoupling and a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition are convergent readings of a single accounting framework. (1) National domestic-tourism direct operational emissions fell from 107.6 Mt in 2019 to 43.7 Mt in 2022 and rebounded to 101.0 Mt in 2024 and about 117 Mt in 2025, above the 2019 peak. (2) With per-activity coefficients fixed, scale effects explain 91–97% of national emission changes, and real carbon intensity in 2023 was essentially unchanged from 2019. (3) On reported provincial statistics, efficiency fell from 0.560 to 0.456 across 26 provinces, but reception statistics drifted by about 29% relative to national totals; under a like-for-like caliber adjustment, the change is −0.013 (p = 0.84). The recovery was a scale-driven carbon rebound without detectable efficiency gains.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su182110801first seen 2026-10-27 04:52:18 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:57:50
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