Modelling the Economic Viability of Aggregated Building Retrofits in Carbon Markets
炭素市場における集合型建物改修の経済的実現可能性のモデル化 (AI 翻訳)
Siti Shahada Shamshuddin, Ashwin Thurairajah, Azlin Mohd Azmi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、炭素市場を活用した建築物の省エネ改修の経済性を評価するモデルを開発。マレーシアの11のGreenRE認証ビルのデータを用い、個別改修では採算が合わず、複数ビルの集約が必須であることを示した。また、炭素価格が少なくとも4ドル/tCO2必要という閾値を特定した。
English
This paper develops a break-even model to assess the economic viability of building retrofits in carbon markets. Using data from 11 certified commercial buildings in Malaysia, it finds that individual projects are unviable at current carbon prices (USD 3/tCO2), requiring aggregation across multiple buildings to achieve ~40,000–200,000 tCO2 reductions and a minimum carbon price of USD 4/tCO2.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はマレーシアを対象とするが、日本のGX文脈でも、建築物の省エネ改修を促進するためのカーボン・プライシングやMRVの設計に示唆を与える。特に、小規模案件の集合化や最低価格帯の設定は、日本のGXリーグやカーボン・クレジット制度においても参考となる。
In the global GX context
This study provides a practical modeling framework for using carbon markets to finance building retrofits, relevant to global carbon pricing mechanisms (e.g., Article 6, voluntary markets). It highlights the need for aggregation and cost-effective MRV to unlock demand-side decarbonization in emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The break-even model offers a replicable method for analyzing carbon market viability for energy efficiency projects, with policy-sensitive parameters.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the cost thresholds and aggregation insights to design building retrofit programs that qualify for carbon credits.
🏛政策担当者:The minimum carbon price of USD 4/tCO2 and emphasis on aggregation provide clear guidance for market designers in emerging economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Building energy efficiency retrofits are a critical component of long-term energy transitions, yet their deployment at scale remains constrained by limited access to viable financing mechanisms. Carbon markets offer a potential revenue stream to support retrofit investments; however, individual building projects are often too small to absorb the high transaction, monitoring, and verification costs required for carbon credit issuance. This study develops a quantitative break-even modelling framework to assess the economic viability of building energy efficiency retrofits and to identify the conditions under which aggregation becomes necessary for market participation. Using empirical data from 11 GreenRE-certified commercial buildings in Malaysia, we estimate potential emission reductions associated with common retrofit measures. A cost-based model is constructed to estimate the total volume of verified carbon units (VCUs) required to recover project-related costs under alternative assumptions for carbon prices, verification frequencies, and crediting periods (7 and 10 years). The analysis evaluates the scale of emission reductions needed for cost recovery and uses this to infer the role of aggregation in enabling market entry. Results show that at a representative global voluntary carbon market price of USD 3 per tCO2, individual building retrofit projects are economically unviable. Under optimized cost structures and biennial verification, break-even conditions require cumulative emission reductions in the range of approximately 40 000–200 000 tCO2 over the studied crediting periods, indicating that aggregation across multiple buildings is essential. The model identifies a minimum carbon price threshold of at least USD 4 per tCO2 for aggregated building retrofit projects to achieve economic viability. The findings highlight the importance of aggregation mechanisms, carbon price signals, and cost-efficient MRV designs in enabling building energy efficiency investments. This study provides policy-relevant insights for market designers and policymakers seeking to leverage carbon markets to support demand-side decarbonization in Malaysia and other emerging economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.7250/conect.2026.027first seen 2026-05-31 04:36:21 · last seen 2026-06-03 04:44:21
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