地域のグリーン水素・アンモニア・メタノール産業の発展ポテンシャルを評価するための計測モデル

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:地域水素産業のポテンシャル評価における多次元指標と不確実性分析の統合手法を学べる。

🏢実務担当者:水素・アンモニア事業の地域選定や投資判断において、水資源やインフラ制約を定量的に考慮する枠組みとして活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:地域の水素産業振興策の立案において、ポテンシャルの理論値と実現可能値のギャップを踏まえた政策設計の重要性を示唆する。

Driven by the “dual-carbon” goals and the construction of a new power system, green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol have emerged as key pathways for scaling up the integration of new energy sources and achieving deep decarbonization in industry. Scientifically measuring regional development potential is essential for avoiding homogeneous deployment and enhancing resource allocation efficiency. This paper first develops a regional potential assessment model that encompasses five dimension-resource endowment, cost competitiveness, infrastructure, market absorption, and policy environment-and comprises 15 indicators. It proposes a comprehensive potential index based on an improved efficacy coefficient method for individual dimension scores and a combined weighting approach (AHP-entropy weighting). Building on this, we further introduce DEMATEL-based correlation adjustments to identify system drivers and bottlenecks, incorporate Monte Carlo uncertainty simulations based on probability density functions (triangular distribution, 5,000 samples) to evaluate the statistical robustness of the index, and construct a three-dimensional “water-carbon-channel” potential realization coefficient to reflect physical spatial constraints and practical engineering limitations. We conduct a case study using Gansu Province’s new energy installed capacity of 102 GW as of June 30, 2026, as the core data. The results show that the theoretical comprehensive potential index stands at 0.802, placing it in the high-potential range; the expected value from the Monte Carlo simulation is 0.798, with an 87.3% probability of being at or above the “high-potential” level. Resource endowment and policy dimensions perform exceptionally well; however, mismatches between water resources and carbon sources, as well as constraints related to transmission channels, pose significant challenges. After adjustment by the three-dimensional realization coefficient, the short-term achievable potential index is approximately 0.293. Model validation indicates that converting new energy installed capacity, power generation, and curtailment rates into hydrogen production potential is the central step in quantitative assessment. The newly introduced correlation and uncertainty analyses significantly enhance the model’s credibility and its policy guidance value.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1109/icemee71303.2026.11748210first seen 2026-11-06 05:28:04