gxceed
← 論文一覧に戻る

Transitioning Away from Oil, with Oil: Quantifying Embedded Oil Demand in the Net-Zero Transition

石油から脱却するための石油：ネットゼロ移行における埋め込まれた石油需要の定量化 (AI 翻訳)

Laing T, Koroma MS, Elshurafa A

Research Squareプレプリント2026-06-09#エネルギー転換Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9908577/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9908577/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

再生可能エネルギーや電気自動車の製造には石油由来の材料が不可欠であり、ネットゼロ社会でも石油需要は残ることを物質フロー分析で定量化。現在日量280万バレルの石油需要が2050年には1200万バレルに増加する可能性を示し、エネルギー転換政策における材料戦略の重要性を指摘する。

English

This study quantifies the paradox that renewable energy and electric vehicle manufacturing relies on oil-based materials. Using material flow analysis, it projects that global oil demand embedded in these technologies could rise from 2.8 million barrels per day today to 12 million barrels per day by 2050, highlighting the need to account for material dependencies in net-zero pathways.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は石油輸入依存度が高く、再エネ・EV普及に伴い材料段階での石油需要が増加する本知見は、日本のエネルギー安全保障と産業政策に重要な示唆を与える。資源制約を考慮したGX戦略の再検討が求められる。

In the global GX context

This work challenges the assumption that net-zero means the end of oil, showing a structural shift from combustion to material embedding. For global climate disclosure and transition planning, it underscores the need to include supply-chain emissions and material dependencies in net-zero scenarios.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative framework for measuring embedded oil demand in clean energy technologies, useful for energy systems modeling.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights supply-chain risks and material dependencies that companies should consider in their net-zero procurement strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that energy transition policies must address material-level oil demand to avoid unintended consequences.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>The prevailing narrative of a net-zero energy system assumes retreat from hydrocarbons. Yet a central paradox remains underexplored: the very technologies designed to displace oil are themselves deeply dependent on it. Renewable energy systems and electric vehicles depend, directly or indirectly, on oil and oil-based products across their supply chain, from extraction and processing to manufacturing. This creates a structural contradiction—oil demand declines in combustion but rises in material form. We quantify this embedded oil demand using material flow analysis linked to net-zero deployment pathways. Under current production processes, global oil requirements associated with these technologies increase from approximately 2.8 million barrels per day today to around 12 million barrels per day by 2050. A substantial share of this demand is attributable to oil-based materials, particularly petroleum coke and petrochemicals, which are used in critical supply chains for steel, aluminum, silicon, and battery materials. These results indicate a structural shift in oil demand from combustion toward material embedding, suggesting that oil use persists in reconfigured forms even in net-zero energy systems. Explicitly accounting for these material requirements provides a more comprehensive representation of oil demand in energy transition pathways.</p>

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。