江蘇省における生産・生活・生態空間の紛争緩和と炭素収支の共進化に関するマルチシナリオシミュレーション

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:土地利用紛争と炭素収支を統合したマルチシナリオ手法（intPLUS＋Geodetector）の応用可能性を学べる。

🏢実務担当者:地域拠点の立地・土地利用戦略において、紛争緩和と低炭素を両立させるシナリオ設計の考え方を参考にできる。

🏛政策担当者:高密度地域の国土空間計画に紛争緩和と炭素削減目標を同時に埋め込む統合的アプローチの有効性を示す。

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have intensified competition among production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES), leading to escalating land use conflicts and carbon imbalances. However, critical knowledge gaps remain. Existing studies have largely examined spatial conflict and carbon balance in isolation, and multi-scenario simulations have predominantly prioritized single objectives — economic growth or ecological protection — over synergistic pathways that jointly address conflict mitigation and carbon reduction. To address this gap, we developed an integrated analytical framework coupling spatial conflict index (SCI) measurement, carbon balance accounting, and the intPLUS model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of PLES conflict and carbon balance in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate four 2030 scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and a novel conflict-balanced low-carbon synergy (CBLSC) scenario. A four-quadrant conflict-carbon analysis and Geodetector were used to identify synergies, trade-offs, and driving mechanisms. Results show that from 2000–2020, spatial conflict intensified significantly, with high-conflict areas concentrated in southern Jiangsu and the Yangtze River belt, closely linked to construction land expansion and rising carbon emissions. By 2030, the ED scenario yields the highest spatial conflict (mean SCI = 0.43) and net carbon emissions (117.70 Mt), while the EP scenario minimizes net emissions (81.14 Mt) but limits development flexibility. Notably, the CBLSC scenario achieves the lowest mean conflict value (0.35) and moderate net emissions (87.14 Mt), effectively mitigating high-conflict-high-carbon clusters and demonstrating superior balance between conflict alleviation and low-carbon transition. Geodetector results reveal that socioeconomic factors, particularly nighttime light intensity, GDP, and population, dominate the spatial differentiation of conflict-carbon coupling, with transportation accessibility playing a supporting role. We conclude that embedding conflict mitigation and carbon balance objectives into land use simulation provides a more effective pathway for territorial spatial optimization in developed regions. The CBLSC scenario offers a practical governance strategy for Jiangsu and similar high-density areas to achieve low-conflict, low-carbon, and spatially coordinated development.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115548first seen 2026-10-04 04:51:02