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ASEANにおける脱炭素ニーズと実用的な太陽光・風力導入のギャップの特定

Identifying a gap between decarbonization needs and practical solar and wind deployment in ASEAN (原題)

Hideaki Obane

Environmental Research Letters📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-25#再生可能エネルギーOrigin: JP経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e4b
原典: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e4b
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、ASEANにおける脱炭素目標と実際の太陽光・風力導入可能性の間に大きなギャップがあることを、高解像度の空間分析で明らかにした。建物フットプリントや土地利用、洋上データを統合し、実用的な導入可能量を試算した結果、IEAの公約シナリオで必要とされる発電量を満たすには、より制約の多い地域への展開が必要であることを示した。また、送電インフラとの空間的ミスマッチや、屋上太陽光の制約要因も新たに特定した。

English

This study reveals a significant gap between decarbonization targets and practical solar and wind deployment potential in ASEAN using a high-resolution spatial framework. Integrating building footprints, land use, and offshore data, it shows that even using all large rooftops would provide only 683 TWh, far below the 1,681 TWh needed under the IEA APS. Expanding to low-constraint areas yields only 1,239 TWh, indicating the need for development in more constrained locations. It also highlights spatial mismatches with demand and transmission infrastructure, and overlooked constraints on rooftop PV.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業がASEANで再生可能エネルギー導入を進める際、本研究成果は地域特有の制約を考慮した計画の重要性を示す。日本の再エネ導入政策やSSBJに基づく開示においても、実効性のある脱炭素戦略の策定に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This study contributes to global GX scholarship by providing a spatially explicit framework for renewable deployment in ASEAN, highlighting the need for region-specific planning. It complements global disclosure frameworks like TCFD/ISSB by emphasizing the practical constraints that affect transition plans and scenario analysis.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a high-resolution spatial framework for assessing practical renewable potential, useful for improving energy system models and scenario studies.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for spatially explicit planning in renewable project development and supply chain decisions in ASEAN.

🏛政策担当者:Informs national energy planning and policy by quantifying the gap between decarbonization targets and practical deployment, emphasizing the need for infrastructure investment.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract For decarbonization in ASEAN, large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power is widely assumed in scenario-based studies. However, these studies rarely account for the multiple spatial constraints that determine where and how renewable energy can practically be deployed. Here, we reveal a gap between decarbonization needs and practical PV and wind deployment in ASEAN using a high-resolution, spatially explicit framework tailored to ASEAN that integrates building footprints, land use and offshore data to quantify practical solar PV and wind deployment across key location types and their underlying constraints. Even if all large rooftops (≥200 m²) were used for PV deployment, they would provide only 683 TWh of electricity, far below the 1,681 TWh required under the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario. Expanding deployment to all relatively low-constraint areas increases generation to only 1,239 TWh, indicating that achieving decarbonization requires development in progressively more constrained locations. We further show that renewable deployment is constrained not only by resource availability but also by the spatial mismatch between renewable resources, electricity demand and transmission infrastructure. We also reveal previously overlooked constraints on rooftop PV deployment, including building characteristics and socioeconomic conditions. These findings demonstrate that renewable deployment pathways are inherently region-specific and require spatially explicit planning tailored to national conditions.

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