21世紀におけるカナダ森林火災の影響と気候変動に起因する世界的な社会費用
Canadian wildfire impacts and global societal costs attributed to climate change over the 21st century (原題)
S. Kou-Giesbrecht, S. Curasi, Renée Hall, Joe R. Melton
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、プロセスベースの火災モデルと反事実シミュレーションを用い、21世紀のカナダ森林火災の焼失面積・曝露・費用・CO2排出を人為的気候変動に帰属させた。パリ協定の2.0℃未満目標は影響を現代水準に保つ一方、高排出シナリオでは曝露が300%超、直接費用が年間約8.7億ドル、火災CO2の世界的社会的費用が年間約500億ドル増加する。気候変動が将来の火災影響の支配的要因であり、火災由来CO2を炭素の社会的費用に組み込む必要性を示す。
English
Using a process-based wildfire model with counterfactual pre-industrial simulations, this study attributes 21st-century Canadian wildfire burned area, exposure, costs, and CO2 emissions to anthropogenic climate change across three SSPs. Limiting warming below 2.0°C keeps impacts near modern levels, while high-emissions scenarios raise population exposure by over 300%, direct costs by up to ~$870M/yr, and the global societal cost of wildfire CO2 by up to ~$50B/yr. It argues wildfire CO2 must be integrated into the social cost of carbon.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は森林火災リスクが相対的に低いが、炭素の社会的費用（SCC）の算定枠組みや気候リスクの定量化手法は、SSBJ・TCFD対応や政策評価に応用可能な示唆を含む。
In the global GX context
This work strengthens the evidence base for integrating climate-driven wildfire emissions into the social cost of carbon, relevant to global carbon pricing debates and physical climate-risk disclosure under TCFD/ISSB. It offers a methodological template for attributing and monetizing climate impacts beyond national borders.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候変動の帰属研究と社会費用推計を統合した手法は、他の気候影響評価にも応用できる。
🏢実務担当者:森林・林業・保険セクターにとって、気候変動に伴う物理的リスクと費用増加の長期見通しを提供する。
🏛政策担当者:炭素の社会的費用に森林火災由来CO2を組み込む必要性を示し、気候政策の費用便益評価に影響を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Wildfires in Canada are intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change, with far-reaching impacts on ecosystems, human well-being, and the global climate system. However, the long-term societal costs of future wildfires and the extent to which they will be shaped by climate change remain poorly quantified. Here, we project Canadian wildfire impacts over the 21st century and attribute projected changes in burned area, exposure, costs, and CO2 emissions to anthropogenic climate change under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We use a process-based wildfire model that explicitly represents fire weather, vegetation growth dynamics, lightning and human ignitions, and suppression, enabling attribution to climate change through counterfactual simulations with a pre-industrial climate. We quantify impacts in terms of exposed population, direct local and national costs (suppression, net timber yield loss, and nature-based recreation value loss), and the globally distributed societal cost of wildfire CO₂ emissions using the social cost of carbon. We find that limiting global warming to below 2.0°C as set out by the Paris Agreement keeps the annual burned area, CO2 emissions, exposure, and societal costs of wildfires comparable to modern levels. In contrast, under high-emissions scenarios, anthropogenic climate change substantially amplifies wildfire activity by the end of the century, increasing population exposure by up to over 300%, direct costs by up to approximately 870 million $ yr-1, and the global societal cost of wildfire CO2 emissions by up to approximately 50 billion $ yr-1 (2025 CAD). Overall, our results demonstrate that climate change is the dominant driver of future wildfire impacts and associated costs, and that incorporating climate-change-driven CO2 emissions from wildfire into the social cost of carbon is essential for fully capturing the future societal burden of climate change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aea637/pdffirst seen 2026-09-15 05:01:16 · last seen 2026-09-22 05:06:30
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