海面上昇加速下におけるSpartina除去後のブルーカーボン貯留維持に必要な内陸移動空間
Inland Migration Space Requirements for Maintaining Blue Carbon Stocks after Spartina Eradication under Accelerating Sea Level Rise (原題)
Wenzhen Zhao, Micheli D. P. Costa, Shiwei Lin, Shupu Wu, Lv Gong, Yang Hu, Lin Su, Yufeng Jiang, Xiaolu Yan, Jingqiu Zhong, Jiangjing Wang, Xiuzhen Li, Peter Ian Macreadie
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の18,000km沿岸で進むSpartina alterniflora除去は21.4Mt CO2の放出を伴う。本研究は種分布モデルとSLAMMを結合し、除去後の2つの回復戦略（環境適性優先ES・炭素貯留優先CS）をSSP1-2.6とSSP5-8.5で2100年まで予測した。2060年・2100年には沿岸湿地が23-50%減少し炭素貯留も12-51%減、目標貯留量2.16Tg C維持には31-157km2の内陸移動空間が必要と示した。
English
China's Spartina eradication across 18,000 km of coast may release 21.4 Mt CO2. Coupling species distribution modeling with SLAMM, the study projects two post-eradication restoration strategies (Environmental Suitability vs. Optimized Carbon Stock) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 to 2100. Tidal marshes lose 23-50% of area and 12-51% of carbon stocks; sustaining a 2.16 Tg C target requires 31-157 km2 of inland migration space, with the carbon-optimized strategy's advantage shrinking under extreme warming.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも干潟・藻場のブルーカーボン生態系はJ-クレジットや環境省のブルーカーボン推進策と関連するが、本論文は外来種除去と内陸移動空間という沿岸管理の論点が中心で、SSBJ・有報・TCFD開示への直接示唆は限定的。沿岸自治体の適応計画担当者には参考になる。
In the global GX context
Blue carbon ecosystems are increasingly recognized in global climate policy (IPCC wetlands guidance, voluntary blue carbon markets), but this paper sits in coastal ecology and adaptation planning rather than corporate disclosure. It offers evidence on the trade-offs between biodiversity restoration and carbon stock maintenance under sea level rise, relevant to nature-related disclosure frameworks such as TNFD.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:外来種除去と気候適応を統合した沿岸炭素動態モデリングの手法と、シナリオ別の内陸移動空間推計が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:沿岸立地を持つ企業の適応計画や自然資本評価において、湿地炭素と海面上昇リスクの定量的な目安を提供する。
🏛政策担当者:沿岸適応計画やブルーカーボン保全策において、早期介入と内陸移動空間の確保を政策設計に組み込む根拠となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract China’s nationwide Spartina alterniflora eradication program across 18,000 km of coastline aims to restore native biodiversity, but removing these carbon-rich invasive stands is estimated to release 21.4 Mt CO2. This challenge is compounded by accelerating sea level rise, which threatens the native replacements meant to restore blue carbon functions, and current restoration approaches lack systematic strategies to address both pressures. We coupled species distribution modeling with the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to project the performance of two posteradication restoration strategies─Environmental Suitability (ES, prioritizing habitat preferences) and Optimized Carbon Stock (CS, prioritizing high-carbon species)─under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 through 2100, and quantified the minimum inland migration area required to sustain a target carbon stock (2.16 Tg C). Across projections for 2060 and 2100, tidal marshes outside seawalls are projected to lose 23–50% of their area, with carbon stocks declining 12–51% relative to 2021 levels. The CS strategy maintained 6–16% higher carbon stocks than ES. Mainting the target carbon stock required 31–157 km2 of inland migration space, with CS’s advantage over ES in reducing migration requirements narrowing from 37% under SSP1-2.6 (2060) to 4% under SSP5-8.5 (2100). These results show that management strategies lose effectiveness under extreme climate conditions, underscoring the value of early intervention under low-emission scenarios, and offer practical migration-space targets for coastal planning wherever invasive species control intersects with accelerating environmental change.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c10279first seen 2026-10-16 05:01:13
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