輸入脆弱性からエネルギー移行パフォーマンスへ：EUにおけるグリーン財政政策の媒介的役割

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a novel mediation framework and methodological integration (PCA, PLS-SEM, PROCESS) for energy governance research.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of green fiscal policy in driving transition performance, useful for corporate strategy aligned with EU policy.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the strategic role of environmental taxation in converting import vulnerability into transition success, relevant for EU and other regions.

<title>Abstract</title> <p>The accelerating geopolitical instability and volatility of global energy markets have renewed European concerns regarding structural energy import vulnerability and its implications for the continent’s climate-neutrality ambitions. While the academic literature has traditionally examined vulnerability and transition performance as directly related phenomena, limited attention has been given to the institutional mechanisms through which structural pressures are transformed into effective transition outcomes. This study addresses this gap by proposing and empirically testing a mediation framework in which green fiscal policy functions as the transmission channel linking energy import vulnerability to energy transition performance in the European Union. Using a balanced panel of 27 EU Member States for 2014–2023, the analysis integrates PCA-based composite indices with PLS-SEM structural modelling and Hayes’ PROCESS mediation technique. This unified methodology allows for robust estimation of latent constructs, causal pathways, and indirect effects. The results show that energy import vulnerability has a positive and statistically significant effect on green fiscal policy, confirming that external dependency triggers compensatory fiscal action. In turn, green fiscal policy exerts a strong and highly significant effect on transition performance, emerging as the dominant driver of efficiency improvements, renewable penetration, and productivity gains. These findings achieve the study’s core objective of identifying the governance pathway through which structural vulnerability influences decarbonisation outcomes. Conceptually, the study advances the literature by shifting the analytical lens from structural determinism to governance-based transmission, demonstrating that fiscal policy ultimately determines transition success. Methodologically, it offers a novel integration of PCA, SEM, and PROCESS for energy governance research. Policy-wise, the results emphasise the strategic role of environmental taxation within the European Green Deal, REPowerEU, and CBAM, particularly for vulnerable Member States requiring stronger fiscal frameworks to convert external pressures into sustainable progress. The study thus contributes a theoretically rigorous and empirically validated perspective on how the European Union can transform vulnerability into a lever for energy transition through coherent fiscal governance.</p>

• Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10734295/v1first seen 2026-09-08 04:21:04 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:22:04