“Haste Makes Waste” in the Green Transition: Corporate Transition Speed, Leverage Buildup, and Default Risk in Emerging Markets
「急がば回れ」のグリーン移行—企業の移行速度、レバレッジ増加、新興市場のデフォルトリスク (AI 翻訳)
Qing Wang, Shuyang Wen, Manlu Yang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国A株企業のデータ(2008-2022)を用いて、グリーン移行の速度が速いほど財務的脆弱性が高まることを示す。特にレバレッジ増加とボラティリティ上昇がリスク要因であり、情報開示はコスト低減を通じて緩和効果を持つ。政策・規制面ではコンプライアンスコストが追加され、迅速な移行と短期的安定性のトレードオフが明らかになった。
English
Using Chinese A-share firms (2008-2022), we show that faster green transition predicts higher financial fragility, measured by lower Z-scores and distance-to-default. The effect operates through leverage buildup and higher volatility. Disclosure buffers the risk by lowering financing costs, while regulation mainly adds compliance pressure. This highlights an intertemporal trade-off between rapid transition and short-run financial stability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、移行速度と財務健全性のバランスが重要であり、SSBJによる開示強化が企業の資金調達コスト低減に寄与する可能性を示唆する。また、移行計画の策定におけるレバレッジ管理の重要性を強調する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence from an emerging market (China) on the trade-off between transition speed and financial risk, relevant for global debates on transition finance and the role of disclosure (ISSB, TCFD). It highlights that disclosure can mitigate risk, aligning with global disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper offers a theoretical and empirical framework linking transition speed to default risk, useful for scholars in climate finance and corporate finance.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams should note that rapid decarbonization may increase leverage and risk; disclosure can help reduce financing costs.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators should consider transition speed guidelines and disclosure requirements to balance decarbonization goals with financial stability.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Corporate decarbonization combines real investment, governance change, and disclosure. Using Chinese A‐share firms (2008–2022), we examine whether faster green transition predicts higher financial fragility. We develop a dynamic model with convex adjustment costs and financing constraints embedded in a structural default‐risk framework. Transition speed is measured as the year‐on‐year speed of a composite green transition index constructed via entropy‐weighted TOPSIS (excluding financial‐performance proxies); the baseline uses Δln(1 + gt) and robustness uses absolute changes, growth rates, and physical proxies (CO 2 ‐ and pollution‐intensity reduction speed). Firm and year fixed‐effects estimates show that faster transition is associated with higher distress and default risk (lower Z‐scores and distance‐to‐default), with heterogeneous but not uniformly ranked effects across pollution, life‐cycle and regional subsamples. Evidence is strongest for leverage buildup and higher volatility; innovation outcomes and debt‐structure adjustments provide additional mechanism‐consistent but more mixed evidence. Green finance is associated with the financing environment around rapid transition, disclosure provides the clearest buffering evidence by lowering financing costs and attenuating selected risk measures, and regulation mainly adds compliance‐cost pressure rather than a robust offset in the core distress/default regressions. Overall, we provide evidence of an intertemporal trade‐off between rapid transition and short‐run financial stability.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.70731first seen 2026-06-12 06:04:22
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