インドの現在の温暖化への歴史的寄与は最近かつ多ガス由来である
India’s historical contribution to present-day warming is recent and multi-gas (原題)
Vikas K. Patel, Prakash Ajay Taksal
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
PRIMAP-hist排出データとFaIR気候モデルを用い、1750〜2024年のインドのCO2・CH4・N2O排出が2024年の世界平均気温上昇に与えた寄与を定量化した。インドの寄与は約0.047〜0.05℃で米中EU露より小さいが、1990年以降に急増し、主にエネルギー部門のCO2による。CH4とN2Oが全体の3分の1〜5分の2を占め、多ガス型の排出プロファイルを示す。
English
Using PRIMAP-hist emissions and the FaIR climate model, the study quantifies India's contribution to 2024 global mean surface temperature change from CO2, CH4 and N2O over 1750–2024. India contributes roughly 0.047–0.05°C, less than the US, China, EU27 and Russia, but with rapid growth after 1990 driven mainly by energy-sector CO2. Non-CO2 gases account for one-third to two-fifths of the total, giving India a more multi-gas profile than early industrialisers.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業・投資家にとっては、Scope 3やサプライチェーン排出の議論で新興国拠点の排出帰属を考える際の参照材料となる。ただし日本の開示制度（SSBJ等）への直接的な示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
Adds to the growing literature on national emissions attribution that underpins equity debates in UNFCCC negotiations and informs how multinationals assess emerging-market supply-chain exposure. Relevant to global stocktake and NDC discussions rather than disclosure frameworks like ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:国別温暖化寄与の多ガス分解手法とPRIMAP-hist/FaIRの適用例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:インド拠点の排出プロファイル（エネルギーCO2＋農業CH4/N2O）をScope 3評価に反映する際の背景情報。
🏛政策担当者:気候交渉における衡平性議論やインドの2070年ネットゼロ政策の根拠として参照可能。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Quantifying national contributions to present-day warming helps clarify how historical emissions from different countries have shaped global temperature change. This is particularly relevant for India, where rising energy demand and emissions make the country’s future mitigation pathway increasingly important for global efforts to limit warming. Understanding India’s contribution to warming to date, and how it varies across greenhouse gases and emitting sectors, can therefore provide useful context for its future mitigation priorities. Here, we quantify India’s contribution to the 2024 global mean surface temperature change from historical territorial emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O over 1750–2024 using PRIMAP-hist emissions and the FaIR climate model. India contributes approximately 0.047 °C–0.05 °C to 2024 warming, less than the United States, China, the EU27 and Russia among the major emitters considered, but more than several other industrial and emerging economies. Much of India’s contribution has accumulated in recent decades, with the strongest increase occurring after 1990. This rise is driven primarily by CO 2 emissions from the energy sector, while agriculture remains the main source of non-CO 2 warming through CH 4 and N 2 O. Overall, CH 4 and N 2 O account for roughly one-third to two-fifths of India’s total contribution, giving India a more multi-gas profile than many early industrialised emitters. Although India’s cumulative contribution to present-day warming remains comparatively modest, its rapid recent growth highlights the increasing importance of energy system decarbonisation. Reducing fossil fuel dependence in the energy sector will therefore be central to limiting further growth in India’s warming contribution and supporting progress towards its long-term net-zero target for 2070.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9e8bfirst seen 2026-09-14 04:34:24
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