信頼できる英国：ガスを使った場合の英国電力コストはいくらだったか
Reliable Britain: what Britain's electricity would have cost on gas (原題)
Lyon, Richard
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2002〜2024年の英国電力について、実際のシステムと「2002年当時の路線（炭素価格なし・旧設備は寿命や汚染規制で閉鎖）」をモデルで比較し、気候政策が電力費用に上乗せした額を推計。差額は2024年価格で1,403億ポンド（感度幅1,208〜1,527億ポンド）と試算。うち829億ポンドは炭素価格分で控除可能。世帯当たり5,298ポンド、帰属配分では2,286ポンドとしている。
English
A technical note models Britain's electricity supply bill from 2002-2024 under the actual system versus a counterfactual 2002 trajectory with no carbon price. The estimated extra cost of net zero on electricity is £140.3bn (range £120.8-152.7bn), of which £82.9bn is embedded carbon price. Per-household gap is £5,298, or £2,286 on an allocated-share basis.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策・賦課金負担や電気料金への脱炭素コスト転嫁を議論する際、政策コストの可視化手法として参考になる。ただし英国固有の制度・電源構成に依存する点に留意。
In the global GX context
Adds a counterfactual cost-accounting lens to the global debate on who bears decarbonization costs in power bills, relevant to carbon-pricing and affordability discussions under CSRD-era transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:脱炭素政策の費用をカウンターファクチュアルで定量化する手法の一事例として参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:電力コスト上昇の政策要因を分解する視点を、自社のエネルギー調達・料金影響評価に応用できる。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格や再エネ政策が電気料金に与える負担を可視化する評価枠組みとして示唆がある。
📄 Abstract（原文）
What did Britain's climate policies since 2002 add to the cost of the electricity it used? This technical note compares two modelled supply bills for each year from 2002 to 2024: one for the actual system, and one for the same electricity on the road Britain was on in 2002, where old plant closes when it wears out, when pollution law shuts it, or when it would not have paid its way without a carbon price; the cheapest new plant holds a 7.4% margin; and fuel is bought at actual prices, with no carbon price. The gap is the difference. All figures are for 2002–24, in 2024 prices. Valuing the actual system's electricity at reconstructed wholesale prices, with the other bill lines, gives £955.5bn, against £815.2bn, modelled, for the road; these are not audited totals of settled customer bills. The gap, the extra cost of net zero on electricity bills, is £140.3bn, modelled; changing the main judgement calls one at a time moves it between £120.8bn and £152.7bn. Of it, £82.9bn before VAT is carbon in the price, which readers may subtract. Per household the gap is £5,298, modelled, an average share of a national gap. The households' allocated share is £2,286, modelled (§2.7). Lost value, what users gave up by using less electricity, is a labelled estimate of £9.8bn, kept apart. Version 1.0.1 corrects one sentence in §3.2 (see Corrections at richardlyon.net/research/reliable-britain/). No figure changes. Version 1.0.2 corrects the title page, which said the note had not been peer reviewed (see Corrections at richardlyon.net/research/reliable-britain/). No figure changes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23666651first seen 2026-10-27 04:13:58 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:12:23
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