現実的な地中CO2貯留予測には、更新されたコストと地質ポテンシャルの前提が必要

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:IAMモデルの前提更新に必要なデータ要件と、貯留コスト・ポテンシャル評価の最新動向を把握できる。

🏢実務担当者:CCSプロジェクトの経済性評価や、政策対話における貯留可能性の根拠として活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:気候目標達成におけるCCSの役割を評価する際、モデル前提の更新とデータ整備の必要性を認識できる。

Integrated Assessment Models project large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide geological storage across many climate change mitigation pathways. However, the feasibility of these projections - particularly concerning near-term scale-up rates - has been criticised. Here, we examine six leading detailed-process Integrated Assessment Models to explicate how carbon dioxide geological storage constraints have improved since the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including how feasible deployment rates are defined. We find these Integrated Assessment Models limit carbon dioxide geological storage deployment by drawing on datasets defining annual storage rates, storage costs, and geological storage potential. However, while recent updates have focused on annual storage rates, cost and storage potential assumptions remain rooted in outdated literature. Our findings highlight an urgent need for the carbon dioxide geological storage community to provide updated and Integrated Assessment Model-ready datasets to improve understanding of and confidence in the role of carbon dioxide geological storage in climate change mitigation pathways. Our work also contributes to ensuring the assumptions embedded in Integrated Assessment Model projections remain transparent. Recent updates of leading integrated assessment models incorporate dynamic near-term scale-up rates of carbon dioxide storage, whereas storage cost and geological potential assumptions remain largely unchanged according to scenarios of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03901-5first seen 2026-08-30 04:35:36