gxceed
← 論文一覧に戻る

GDP at transition risk

移行リスクにさらされるGDP (AI 翻訳)

Dirk Schoenmaker, Willem Schramade

Finance research letters📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-26#トランジション・ファイナンスOrigin: EU経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.110242
原典: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2026.110242

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

セクター別炭素強度と移行準備態勢を組み合わせた二段階モデルでGDPの移行リスク暴露を定量化。EUエネルギー移行に適用し、GDPリスクがスウェーデン8％からポーランド43％まで幅があることを発見。政策立案者や機関投資家に簡便なツールボックスを提供。

English

Develops a two-stage model quantifying GDP exposure to transition risk by combining sectoral carbon intensity and transition preparedness. Applied to the EU energy transition, finds GDP at risk ranges from 8% (Sweden) to 43% (Poland), driven by carbon-intensive sectors like manufacturing and power. Provides a simple toolbox for policymakers and institutional investors.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

EU事例だが、日本でも製造業・電力の炭素集約度が高く、SSBJ対応や投資家向け開示において移行リスク評価が急務。本モデルは日本企業のリスク定量化にも応用可能性がある。

In the global GX context

This EU-focused model bridges macroeconomic and sectoral transition risks, offering a replicable framework for global policymakers and investors. Relevant to ISSB and TCFD-aligned risk disclosure, it highlights that transition effort differences drive GDP exposure more than legacy emissions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:A simple two-stage model to quantify GDP-at-risk from transition, useful for further empirical work on cross-country or sector-level risk assessment.

🏢実務担当者:Can be used by corporate strategy teams to benchmark transition risk exposure and by financial institutions to assess portfolio-level stranded asset risk.

🏛政策担当者:Provides a clear indicator (GDP at risk) to prioritize decarbonization efforts and design just transition policies.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Sustainability transitions expose economies to transition risk, but the share of GDP at risk remains unclear, limiting policymakers’ and financiers’ ability to mitigate stranded assets risk. We develop a two-stage model to quantify GDP exposure to transition risk, combining sectoral carbon intensity with transition preparedness. Applying this to the EU energy transition, we find GDP at risk from transitions ranges from 8% (Sweden) to 43% (Poland), driven by carbon-intensive sectors like manufacturing and power generation. These results are driven less by differences in legacy exposures than by transition efforts. Our model bridges macroeconomic and sectoral transition risks. And it provides both policymakers and institutional investors with a simple toolbox to assess transition risks.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。