エネルギーと経済のリープフロッグ：東アフリカ新興経済における持続可能なエネルギー・産業転換の戦略的経路
Energy and economic leapfrogging: Strategic pathways for sustainable energy-industry transitions in East Africa's emerging economies (原題)
Ayobami Solomon Oyewo, Ilerioluwaleyi G. Binuyo, Thomas Kivevele, Patrick Mwanzia, Christian Breyer
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
東アフリカを対象にPower-to-X枠組みでエネルギー・産業システムを技術経済分析。現行・遅延・最善の3つの炭素価格政策シナリオを比較し、2050年に太陽光・風力で13〜17€/MWhの低コスト再エネが実現可能と示す。電化とe-フューエル・e-ケミカルが脱化石燃料と経済発展を両立する費用効果的経路となる。
English
A techno-economic Power-to-X analysis of East Africa's energy-industry system under three carbon-pricing scenarios. Low-cost renewables (13-17 €/MWh by 2050) enable cost-effective electrification and defossilisation, with e-fuels and e-chemicals covering 21-77% of hard-to-electrify demand. Electrification offers a pathway to bypass fossil-fuel dependence and drive industrialisation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとっては、炭素価格シナリオ別の産業脱炭素経路と再エネ調達コストの将来像を比較する分析枠組みとして参考になる。特に新興国でのPower-to-X事業・投資判断や、日本が強みを持つ水素・e-fuel技術の海外展開先として東アフリカを評価する材料となる。
In the global GX context
Adds Global South empirical evidence to transition-finance and carbon-pricing debates largely dominated by European studies. Relevant to ISSB/TCFD-aligned scenario analysis and to investors assessing carbon-neutral industrialisation pathways in emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Power-to-Xと炭素価格シナリオを組み合わせた新興国向け技術経済モデルの実例として参照価値が高い。
🏢実務担当者:東アフリカでの再エネ調達・e-fuel事業の投資判断や炭素価格リスク評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格導入時期と野心度が産業脱炭素コストに与える影響を示す政策設計の参考例。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Transitioning from fossil fuels is critical for Africa's climate and renewable energy goals, yet energy system-wide transition research in Africa is limited, with most studies focusing on the power sector. Power-to-X technologies offer pathways for deep defossilisation of hard-to-electrify sectors, yet region-specific analyses remain scarce, as existing literature is mainly concentrated in the Global North, particularly Europe. This study addresses the gap though detailed energy-industry system analyses within a Power-to-X framework, using a robust techno-economic approach for East Africa under macroeconomics assumptions that support industrialisation and defossilisation. Three scenarios are examined, including the current policy (no CO 2 pricing, status quo), delayed policy (CO 2 pricing from 2035, moderately ambitious), and best policy (CO 2 pricing, highly ambitious), enabling assessment of various energy futures. Comparing scenario outcomes reveals that the cost-effective pathway forward relies primarily on renewable energy. Low-cost renewable electricity, mainly from solar photovoltaics and wind power at 13–17 €/MWh by 2050, has the potential to transform the energy-industry landscape of emerging economies in East Africa. Electricity generation is at cost parity with the Delayed Policy Scenario at 16 €/MWh, while the Current Policy Scenario results in significantly higher cost of 41 €/MWh. Comprehensive electrification presents a cost-effective opportunity to bypass fossil fuel dependence and drive long-term economic development. e-Fuels and e-chemicals meet East Africa's hard-to-electrify demands, supplying 21-77% of fuel and chemical demand, compared with 14-33% from bioenergy and 0-65% from fossil fuels. Research on this topic in Africa requires further study to inform investment strategies and policy frameworks that support carbon-neutral industrialisation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2026.117405first seen 2026-09-10 04:37:08
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