An Econometric Assessment of Growth-Pollution Interactions in Vietnam within the Environmental Kuznets Framework
環境クズネッツ枠組みにおけるベトナムの成長と汚染の相互作用の計量経済学的評価 (AI 翻訳)
T. Phùng, Thi Thanh Huong Chu, T. Tran, Thi Phuong Chi Nguyen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ベトナムの経済成長とCO2排出の関係を環境クズネッツ曲線（EKC）仮説に基づき、1990〜2024年のデータでARDLモデル等を用いて分析。実質実効為替レート（REER）と排出の双方向因果を発見し、工業成長は排出に線形正の効果を持つと示唆。日本・韓国・シンガポールのベンチマークから、ベトナムのEKC転換点は2044〜2063年と予測。税制優遇や国際基準に沿った国内基準の設定など、グリーン技術導入の加速を提言。
English
This study analyzes the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in Vietnam within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework using 1990-2024 data and ARDL models. It finds bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and emissions, and a linear positive effect of industrial growth on emissions. Benchmarking against Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, it projects Vietnam's EKC turning point between 2044 and 2063. Recommendations include tax incentives and aligning domestic standards with international benchmarks to accelerate green technology adoption.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
ベトナムの事例は、日本企業のサプライチェーンにおける排出削減の文脈で重要。日本はベトナムへの投資・技術移転を進めており、現地の排出動向はScope 3排出量の算定や削減戦略に影響を与える。また、アジア新興国のEKC転換点の予測は、日本の国際協力や技術輸出のタイミングを検討する上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global EKC literature by incorporating exchange rate volatility and using Asian benchmarks to project turning points. It offers insights for transition finance and technology transfer strategies in emerging economies, relevant to ISSB-aligned disclosure and climate risk assessment. The findings on trade-environment linkages can inform policy design for net-zero transitions in developing countries.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:EKC仮説の新興国適用と為替レートの役割に関する実証的知見を提供。
🏢実務担当者:ベトナムでの事業展開やサプライチェーン排出管理に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:新興国の排出削減政策と国際協力の設計に参考。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Vietnam considers achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 a strategic goal, requiring a thorough understanding of the macroeconomic factors influencing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This research examines the relationship between economic growth and pollution within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, with a unique emphasis on the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility. Utilizing annual data from the World Bank spanning 1990 to 2024, the study employs a robust multi-step econometric methodology, primarily the ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Granger causality analysis, to address small sample constraints and capture dynamic interactions. Additionally, a comparative Threshold Autoregression (TAR) analysis is conducted using industrialized Asian economies as benchmarks to identify Vietnam’s specific EKC turning point. The findings reveal a bidirectional causal link between REER and carbon emissions, suggesting currency valuation directly affects environmental quality through trade pathways. Contrary to the classic inverted U-shaped EKC, local data show industrial growth has a linear positive effect on emissions. By referencing development benchmarks from Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, projections indicate Vietnam’s EKC turning point could occur between 2044 and 2063, depending on annual growth rates of 5.8% to 3%. Based on these insights, it is recommended that Vietnam accelerate green technology adoption by offering tax incentives, streamlining administrative processes, and setting domestic standards aligned with international benchmarks to expedite progress toward its Net Zero goal by 2050.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.46488/nept.2026.v25i03.d1880first seen 2026-08-01 06:25:06
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