Assessing the role of Blue Hydrogen in the UK's Net Zero transition: integrated lifecycle, value chain and policy perspectives

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🔬研究者:The integrated LCA-VCA-policy methodology provides a replicable framework for assessing hydrogen pathways in other national contexts.

🏢実務担当者:Demonstrates that blue hydrogen's decarbonization contribution is conditional on feedstock, electricity source, and policy support; useful for supply chain and investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights gaps in current UK policy for CCS scaling and uncertainty management; suggests sequential project prioritization over parallel rollout.

As the global energy transition progresses, hydrogen is increasingly recognised as a key vector for industrial decarbonisation. Blue hydrogen, produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), is widely proposed as a transitional solution towards a low-carbon hydrogen economy. However, its credibility and effectiveness depend on multiple interacting factors including lifecycle environmental performance, value-chain efficiency, and the role of supporting policy frameworks. This creates a need for integrated and evidence-based assessment to inform policy and investment decisions. The aim of this PhD research is to evaluate whether, and under what conditions, blue hydrogen can contribute credibly to the UK's Net Zero objectives that are constrained by time. To address this aim, the thesis adopts a holistic, systems-based approach integrating Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Value Chain Analysis (VCA) and Policy Analysis (PA). An ISO 14040/44-compliant Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was conducted across three UK-based production configurations (Acorn, HyNet, and H2H Saltend) and one end-use blue hydrogen application. Results demonstrate lifecycle emissions intensities ranging from 14.85 to 13.35 gCO₂e/MJ and when scale of production is increased, there is an approximately a 10% reduction in emissions intensity. Feedstock composition significantly influences performance, as seen with a 20% refinery off-gas blend increasing emissions by 17% relative to a 100% natural gas feedstock operation. Electricity source exhibits the strongest influence where renewable electricity integration reduces emissions to 5.58 gCO₂e/MJ (about 60% reduction) but increases toxicity indicators by approximately 42%. In refinery end-use applications, hydrogen substitution reduces global warming potential by 80% while increasing terrestrial ecotoxicity by 79% demonstrating measurable environmental trade-offs. The VCA investigates how value can be enhanced across the blue hydrogen system, with decarbonisation treated as a core metric of value. The analysis focuses on process optimisation, critical raw material and feedstock dependencies (notably natural gas), infrastructure requirements, and stakeholder roles. The results identify opportunities to improve efficiency, manage resource risks, and strengthen stakeholder coordination to support a resilient and sustainable hydrogen value chain. The VCA reveals that over 50% of stakeholders perceive environmental decarbonisation as the primary value driver with 60% of strong relationship and information flows focussed on the upstream section of the value chain and 90% of the weak relationships (low quality of stakeholder engagement, governance, and collaboration) and information flows are in the tertiary section of the value chain. Again, achieving 5GW of blue hydrogen capacity by 2030 would require approximately 30% of total UK Continental Shelf gas supply with projections indicating up to 59% import dependency by 2050. The PA examines the effectiveness of existing UK policy framework, the policies governing blue hydrogen and CCS, including carbon pricing, subsidies and regulatory standards. The analysis evaluates three alternative policy frameworks relative to the current approach of developing multiple blue hydrogen projects in parallel. The findings indicate that while current policies provide partial support, significant gaps remain particularly in enabling large-scale CCS deployment and managing uncertainty. The ranked results suggest that prioritising a single pilot blue hydrogen project before large-scale rollout represents a more effective and efficient policy pathway. Overall, by integrating LCA, VCA, and PA, this research provides a comprehensive, UK-specific assessment of blue hydrogen. It demonstrates that blue hydrogen's contribution to Net Zero is conditional rather than guaranteed, and highlights the importance of coordinated technological, value-chain, and adaptive policy design to ensure credible and robust decarbonisation outcomes.

• openalex https://rgu-repository.worktribe.com/3463693/1/OBUROH%202026%20Assessing%20the%20role%20offirst seen 2026-07-25 04:54:48