エネルギー転換が経済成長に与える非線形かつレジーム依存的な影響：エネルギー生産性の閾値効果と気候投資の調整役割の探求
Exploring the nonlinear and regime-dependent impact of energy transition on economic growth through the threshold effect of energy productivity and the moderating role of climate investments (原題)
Hamdi Khalfaoui
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EU-27のパネルデータ（2015-2024）を用い、PSTRモデルでエネルギー転換と経済成長の非線形関係を分析。エネルギー生産性の閾値（4.956 €/kgoe）を下回ると効果は非有意だが、上回ると成長を促進。気候投資は独立した閾値ではなく、調整変数として作用し、成熟市場では代替効果が見られる。
English
Using a PSTR model on EU-27 quarterly data (2015-2024), this study finds a nonlinear, regime-dependent link between energy transition and GDP growth. Below an energy productivity threshold of 4.956 €/kgoe, the effect is insignificant; above it, transition drives growth. Climate investment acts as a moderator, showing diminishing returns in mature markets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、再生可能エネルギー導入の経済効果を評価する際に、エネルギー生産性の閾値概念が参考になる。また、補助金の段階的廃止と市場主導への移行は、日本のFIT制度見直しに示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to the global debate on green growth by providing empirical evidence from the EU-27 on the conditional role of energy productivity and climate investment. It offers insights for policymakers on when to phase out subsidies and rely on market mechanisms, relevant to ISSB-aligned transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a robust empirical framework (PSTR) for analyzing nonlinear energy transition-growth dynamics, useful for extending to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of energy productivity as a precondition for reaping growth benefits from renewable investments, informing corporate transition strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that climate subsidies should be phased out in mature markets and replaced by market-driven approaches, guiding policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The relationship between renewable energy and economic growth remains a subject of intense debate. This article investigates the non-linear, regime-dependent nature of the energy transition-growth nexus, examining how energy productivity thresholds and climate investment condition this relationship across the EU-27. Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model on a balanced quarterly dataset (2015–2024), we challenge traditional linear assumptions. Our results reveal a highly significant energy productivity threshold of 4.956 €/kgoe. Below this absorptive capacity level, the energy transition exhibits a statistically insignificant association with GDP. However, above this threshold, it becomes a powerful driver of economic expansion, validating the green growth hypothesis. Conversely, empirical evidence rejects climate investment as an independent structural threshold. Yet, when integrated as a moderating variable, the interaction between climate investment and energy transition correlates with diminishing marginal returns. This conditional association suggests a substitution effect, indicating that climate finance plays a nuanced moderating role in mature markets. These conclusions remain robust after accounting for alternative threshold variables and the Covid-19 pandemic shock. Policymakers must therefore closely monitor and boost the productivity of renewable energy, while also encouraging further climate investment, in order to build the absorptive capacity necessary to unlock sustainable economic growth. However, in mature, high-performing economies, they must phase out unnecessary public subsidies for climate-related projects and transition to a market-driven approach to renewable energy growth.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04164-yfirst seen 2026-08-20 04:35:55
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