Beyond LCOE: Methodological Limitations and a Macroeconomic Framework for Energy Transition Costs
LCOEを超えて：方法論的限界とエネルギー転換コストのマクロ経済的枠組み (AI 翻訳)
Bibek Bhatta
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、均等化発電原価（LCOE）が発電技術比較やエネルギー転換コスト評価に不十分であると指摘。標準的なLCOE計算における割引率の不一致、最終用途の違いの無視、主要技術の除外、炭素価格の固定入力などの問題を挙げ、より透明で経済全体にわたる評価枠組みを提案する。
English
This paper argues that Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is unreliable for comparing generation technologies or assessing transition costs, citing inconsistent discount rates, omitted technologies, and fixed carbon price assumptions. It introduces a simple macroeconomic framework linking real energy cost changes to national income, enabling transparent scenario testing.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもLCOEはエネルギー政策の基礎として使われるが、本論文の批判は日本の電源構成議論にも示唆を与える。マクロ経済的枠組みは、日本のGX政策におけるコスト評価の透明性向上に寄与する可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This paper addresses a global gap in transition cost assessment, moving beyond narrow LCOE metrics. Its macroeconomic framework offers a testable, economy-wide approach valuable for policymakers and analysts worldwide, especially as countries implement NDCs and transition finance strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a critical methodological review and a new analytical framework for energy transition cost modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a transparent, macro-level tool for evaluating the cost implications of energy transition scenarios under uncertainty.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the pitfalls of relying on LCOE for policy decisions and suggests a more robust, income-based framework.
📄 Abstract（原文）
While Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) can be useful as a project‑level screening tool, this paper argues that it is not a reliable basis for comparing electricity generation technologies or assessing the wider cost of energy transition. Standard LCOE calculations embed inconsistent discount rates, overlook end‑use differences, omit key technologies such as nuclear from headline comparisons, and treat projected carbon prices as fixed inputs rather than uncertain policy variables. Individually and in combination, these methodological choices distort cost comparisons and risk misleading policy decisions. To address this, the report introduces a simple macroeconomic framework that links persistent changes in the real cost of energy to national income using a small number of observable variables, making the cost of transition explicit and testable under alternative scenarios. Together, these insights highlight the need to move beyond narrow generation metrics toward more transparent, economy-wide assessments of energy transition costs.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20186170first seen 2026-06-02 04:42:18 · last seen 2026-06-03 04:45:04
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