気候誘発性の土地転換と持続可能な地区計画：住宅・再生可能エネルギー・オープンスペースのGISベース配分

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:GIS-based planning methods linking climate triggers to land allocation; useful for further research on climate adaptation and renewable siting.

🏢実務担当者:Planners can use the workflow to stress-test district plans and balance housing, PV, and conservation under climate change.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for proactive land-use policies that integrate climate thresholds and renewable energy targets.

Purpose This study aims to present a GIS-based spatial decision-support workflow that converts climate-driven agricultural threshold crossing into proactive planning for district-scale housing, renewable-energy infrastructure and open-space protection. Design/methodology/approach DSSAT-CERES-Wheat is used to define a planning trigger for rain-fed wheat, namely the first year in which simulated yields remain below a locally relevant economic threshold. This trigger activates a GIS workflow in which statutory-plan layers, settlements, transport infrastructure, power lines and protected areas are transformed into suitability surfaces and allocated under development-priority, conservation-priority and neutral policy scenarios. Findings Scenario maps show that threshold crossing can expose former agricultural land to sharply divergent spatial pathways. Development-priority policies increase urban and rural housing footprints and potential sprawl, while conservation-priority policies preserve open-space continuity. PV allocation depends strongly on grid proximity and therefore competes spatially with both housing and conservation objectives. A weighting and distance-decay sensitivity test shows that allocation shares change substantially, especially under development priority, but the contrast between conservation-oriented and development-oriented policy paths remains interpretable. A retrospective validation against 1995–2025 urban expansion in Ofakim and Netivot shows that most observed expansion occurred in the highest urban-influence class, supporting the urban distance-decay component. Practical implications The workflow allows planners to stress-test district plans, identify where agricultural conversion pressure may become a district-planning issue and compare compact growth, renewable-energy deployment and biodiversity protection before statutory plans are revised. Originality/value The paper offers a modular, reproducible workflow that links agricultural-threshold timing with statutory planning constraints and scenario-based allocation, extending built-environment decision support beyond building-scale sustainability toward district-scale land-use transitions.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1108/sasbe-12-2025-0812first seen 2026-09-01 05:10:12