Chronic kidney disease burden attributable to heat waves amid climate change and related hospital accessibility: a health impact assessment study based on two nationally representative surveys in China
気候変動に伴う熱波に起因する慢性腎臓病負担と関連する病院アクセス：中国の全国的代表調査に基づく健康影響評価研究 (AI 翻訳)
Wanzhou Wang, Fulin Wang, Xiao Zhang, Ze Liang, Shaoqing Wei, Yingying Qin, Jinwei Wang, Feifei Zhang, Pengfei Li, Ying Zhou, Limin Wang, Chao Yang, Luxia Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の全国調査データを用いて、熱波に起因する慢性腎臓病（CKD）の負担と将来予測、医療アクセス格差を評価した。2020年には約49万人の進行CKD症例が熱波に起因し、農村部や亜熱帯・熱帯地域で高い負担を示した。今後、高排出シナリオでは負担が2倍以上に増加し、病院アクセスの不平等も持続する可能性が示唆された。
English
This study uses nationally representative survey data from China to assess the burden of advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) attributable to heat waves, future projections, and hospital accessibility inequalities. In 2020, approximately 491,000 advanced CKD cases were attributable to heat waves, disproportionately affecting rural and subtropical/tropical regions. Under high-emission scenarios, the burden could more than double by 2090, and hospital accessibility inequalities persist.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は中国の事例だが、日本の気候変動適応策や熱中症対策にも示唆を与える。特に高齢化が進む日本では、熱波の健康影響と医療アクセスの公平性が重要な政策課題となり得る。ただし、GX（グリーントランスフォーメーション）の核心である排出削減ではなく、適応策に焦点を当てている。
In the global GX context
This China-focused study provides a methodology for quantifying health burdens attributable to heat waves under climate change, relevant to global adaptation planning. It highlights the importance of integrating health impact assessments into climate risk management and addressing healthcare accessibility inequalities. While not directly about mitigation, it underscores the human cost of climate inaction.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Epidemiological methods linking climate projections to health outcomes and assessing spatial inequalities are valuable for climate-health research.
🏢実務担当者:Healthcare planners can use the grid-level burden maps to prioritize resource allocation in vulnerable regions.
🏛政策担当者:The projected increases in heat-wave-attributable CKD under high-emission scenarios underscore the need for both climate mitigation and adaptation investments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
BACKGROUND: Heat waves are increasingly recognized as an environmental determinant of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the CKD burden attributable to heat waves and associated healthcare inequalities, particularly under future climate change, remains insufficiently characterized. METHODS: Based on two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys in China, we established climate region-specific exposure-response functions between heat waves and CKD. Then, we conducted 1-km grid-level health impact assessments integrating the most up-to-date nationally representative CKD prevalence data, temperature projections, population estimates, and socioeconomic indicators. The analyses focused on stages 4-5 CKD (advanced CKD), given its progressive nature and requirements for continuous medical treatment. Heat wave-attributable CKD burden was quantified as attributable cases (ACs), attributable fractions (AFs), and population attributable fractions (PAFs). Projections for 2030-2090 were generated under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Hospital accessibility was evaluated using AC-weighted driving times and accessibility scores, with inequality assessed via Gini indices and Lorenz curves. RESULTS: In 2020, an estimated 491,362 (227,772-694,191) stages 4-5 CKD cases (about 30.06% of all cases and 45.31 per 100,000 adults) were attributable to heat waves, disproportionately affecting rural areas (PAF: 47.08 per 100,000) and subtropical and tropical regions (PAF: 52.43 per 100,000) compared to their counterparts. Projections indicated increasing trends in PAFs under high-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP5-8.5 showing > 2-fold increase in 2090). The average driving time to the nearest hospital for ACs was 15.8 (7.6-22.3) minutes, with rural areas showing significantly longer times (20.4 min) and lower accessibility. The national Gini index for hospital accessibility was 0.45, indicating high inequality, and the inequality might persist across all future climate scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Heat waves are associated with a substantial and spatially uneven burden of advanced CKD in China, compounded by significant inequalities in hospital accessibility. These inequalities may persist under future climate change given current hospital accessibility settings. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-026-05067-5first seen 2026-07-17 05:14:06
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