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政策実験による脱炭素ガバナンス：中国低炭素パイロットプログラムにおける重層的サイト選定

Governing Decarbonisation Through Policy Experimentation: Layered Site Selection in China's Low‐Carbon Pilot Programme (原題)

Juan Du, Dan Ling, Hongtao Yi

Environmental Policy and Governance📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-11-03#政策Origin: CN
DOI: 10.1002/eet.70157
原典: https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.70157

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の低炭素省・市（LCPC）パイロットを対象に、複数バッチにわたる都市の選定基準の変化をCox比例ハザードモデル等で分析した研究。初期段階では財政能力や実施条件の良さが選定に効く一方、拡大期にはエネルギー強度や産業構造が国の基準に近い「代表性」も選定要因となることを示す。政策実験の可能性と限界を描き出す。

English

This study analyzes how site-selection criteria for China's Low-Carbon Province and City pilot changed across successive batches using Cox proportional hazards and piecewise exponential models. Early entry favored cities with stronger fiscal capacity and favorable implementation conditions, while later rounds also selected sites near national benchmarks in energy intensity and industrial structure, reflecting representativeness. It reveals both the promise and limits of experimentalist decarbonization governance.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の実験的ガバナンスの実態は、日本の自治体・地域脱炭素政策や国の実証事業設計を考える上で比較材料になる。パイロット選定が「実施可能性」と「代表性」の間で揺れる構造は、日本版GX推進における地域指定の議論にも示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Offers a rare systematic account of how multi-round policy pilots evolve, informing debates on experimentalist climate governance relevant to EU and other jurisdictions designing pilot-based decarbonization instruments. It adds empirical evidence on the trade-off between feasibility and representativeness in site selection.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:政策実験・実験的ガバナンス研究に対し、複数ラウンドの選定基準変化を定量化する枠組みを提供する。

🏛政策担当者:地域・都市単位の脱炭素パイロット設計において、拡大期に代表性をどう組み込むかの判断材料になる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

ABSTRACT Policy piloting is central to China's experimentalist approach to environmental governance. Pilot programmes often expand through multiple rounds, but the extant literature explores them as a whole, with how site selection criteria change during expansion underexamined. We conceptualise multi‐round policy piloting as a dynamic process in which testing error is layered onto testing correctness as a programme expands. Testing correctness favours sites that are able to demonstrate feasibility, whereas testing error broadens selection to settings that can reveal the limits of policy applicability. We examine China's Low‐Carbon Province and City (LCPC) pilot, the country's first large‐scale national decarbonisation experiment. Using Cox proportional hazards and piecewise constant exponential models, we analyse city‐level entry into pilot coverage across successive batches. Baseline comparisons show greater fiscal capacity among pilot cities in all batches. Regression results show that favourable implementation conditions are associated with pilot entry in the initial stage and remain relevant during expansion. Later‐round entry is associated with proximity to national benchmarks in energy intensity and industrial structure, suggesting that representativeness also informs selection of pilot sites during expansion. These findings shed light on the promise and the limits of policy experimentation in China's low‐carbon transition.

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