水力発電の系統価値：経済・低炭素・地域効果（ロシアの事例）

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:LCOEを超えた系統価値評価と限界排出係数の炭素会計応用に関心のある研究者に有用。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達やScope 2算定で限界排出係数や容量価値の扱いを検討する実務担当者に示唆。

🏛政策担当者:電力市場設計や容量メカニズム、炭素会計手法の政策立案に参考となる。

Hydropower remains one of the key elements of the low‑carbon transformation of energy systems, but its economic assessment is often reduced to comparing the normalized cost of electricity (LCOE), which does not reflect the systemic value of hydropower generation as a controllable, flexible, and reliable resource. The aim of the study is to develop and test an integrated model for assessing the economic, environmental and economic, regional, and systemic effects of hydropower development using Russia as an example. The methodology combines LCOE analysis with an assessment of sensitivity to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), the transition from the average emission factor of the power system to marginal emission factors (MEF) in carbon accounting, a conceptual model of the normalized cost of electricity adjusted for system value (VALCOE) for monetizing system services, and an analysis of the channels through which investment impulses are transmitted to the regional economy, based on the logic of the input–output balance model. It has been shown that the traditional LCOE underestimates the economic value of hydropower, as it does not take into account the value of capacity, maneuverability, frequency and voltage regulation, the ability to start up autonomously, and deferred grid investments. An increase in WACC from 5 to 10% increases the LCOE of a new large hydroelectric power plant by approximately 80%, and an increase to 14% increases it by more than twofold, which shifts the investment optimum from new construction to the modernization of existing assets. The transition from the average emission factor of the power system to marginal factors increases the estimate of avoided CO2 emissions from 72.2 to 97-105 million tons per year in a conservative scenario of gas generation replacement, and to 152-161 million tons per year in the scenario of predominant replacement of coal generation in Siberia and the Far East. The economics of hydropower cannot be assessed solely through the cost of electricity production. To unlock its low‑carbon and systemic potential, it is necessary to monetize systemic services and apply marginal carbon accounting.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046x_2026_11_11_158first seen 2026-11-14 05:00:49