スペクトルの必須性：DSGEモデルは気候システムの構造的安定性を組み込むべきである

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a theoretical framework for incorporating climate stability into DSGE models, useful for further research.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests tracking a spectral gap as a macro-financial stability indicator and adjusting carbon pricing accordingly.

Standard economic models used to guide climate policy are missing a critical variable: the structural stability of the climate system itself. Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which dominate climate policy analysis, treat the climate as a smooth, reversible system that responds predictably to emissions and temperature. This assumption is mathematically untenable. The climate system possesses a resonance architecture characterized by a spectral gap—the separation between its dominant oscillatory modes. When this gap is large, the system remains coherent and stable. When it shrinks, the system approaches a tipping point. When it collapses entirely, abrupt, irreversible regime shifts become possible. Emissions degrade this spectral gap, making stability itself a public good that depreciates with carbon output. Drawing on the Trojan framework for nonlinear stability, this paper demonstrates that DSGE models must be modified to incorporate the spectral gap as an explicit optimization constraint. The result is a spectral correction to the Hotelling rule for carbon pricing: when the gap is shrinking, the carbon price must rise faster than the interest rate to prevent structural collapse. This correction implies that the optimal carbon tax may follow an inverse-U-shaped path—rising slowly initially, then accelerating as the gap narrows. Numerical simulations indicate that policies optimized without the spectral constraint have significantly higher probabilities of triggering gap collapse than Trojan-constrained policies. The welfare cost of maintaining spectral stability is modest—approximately 1.6% of GDP—while the benefits include reducing collapse risk by a factor of three. The implications are clear. Central banks and finance ministries must track the spectral gap as a macro-financial stability indicator. International agreements must include spectral stability mechanisms. R&D subsidies must be front-loaded when the gap is large. Policymakers face a choice: optimize for temperature and risk collapse, or optimize for stability and ensure a liveable future. The mathematics is clear. The choice is ours.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/22182995first seen 2026-08-31 04:31:05 · last seen 2026-09-12 04:33:04