METHANE IN THE SURFACE LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE: CURRENT CONTENT, LONG-TERM TRENDS AND INTRAANNUAL VARIABILITY

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:For GX researchers, this offers a robust statistical view of methane trends and variability that can ground emissions accounting and verification.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers may use this to understand the natural vs. anthropogenic drivers of methane concentrations, but it does not provide direct policy instruments.

The article is devoted to the empirical analysis of series of monthly mean concentrations of methane in the near-surface layer of the atmosphere from the global network of monitoring stations. They operate within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The data is freely available at the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases GAW/WMO (WDCGG) on its website https://gaw.kishou.go.jp/ . The temporal coverage is from the 1980s. Data series from 69 stations are considered, of which 22 stations represent the global background conditions. The rest of the stations are regional. Long-term trends in concentrations and intraannual (inter-monthly) deviations of mean monthly concentrations from long-term trends were studied. The multi-year trend was estimated using a series of 12-month running averages. To exclude systematic differences in methane concentrations, these series were adjusted to the series for the high-latitude Arctic station Alert (82° 30' N, 62° 21' W). The analysis showed that long-term trends are non-linear (including with a known pause in the growth of methane levels in 1999-2006), but are similar at most of the stations under consideration. Exceptions are 6 regional stations classified as ‘abnormal’ for methane. A possible cause of the abnormality is being under the influence of certain sources of methane (anthropogenic or natural). Long-term trends at the rest of the stations are just slightly differ from the average trend for global stations. The series of intra-annual (inter-monthly) deviations of mean monthly concentrations from long-term trends for many stations, even those located at very significant distances from each other, show high correlative similarity. However, it manifests itself at an optimal time shift from 5 months. towards earlier dates up to 6 months. towards later dates. The results of the analysis are consistent with the assumption that the intra-annual variability in methane concentration is largely driven by seasonal factors that are significantly related to latitude, including vertical mixing in the atmosphere and destruction in the troposphere in reactions with hydroxyl. The root-mean-square values of the intra-annual (inter-monthly) fluctuations in methane concentration significantly depend on latitude. The higher the latitude, the greater the overall value. Maximum values are reached in the latitudinal belt 45-50° N, and further, to the north, the Кузовкин В.В., Семенов С.М. 20 values decrease. This character of intra-annual fluctuations in the level of methane content may be explained, among other things, by significant inter-seasonal fluctuations in anthropogenic methane emissions at the indicated latitudes in countries with developed economies located in North America and Western Europe. The estimates of correlations of the series of intra-annual (inter-monthly) fluctuations of the average monthly concentrations of CH4 and CO2 showed that at optimal time shifts, they are rather high, about 0.8. Moreover, this is observed both at some polar stations and at tropical ones. This confirms the assumption that natural seasonal biogeochemical and geophysical processes play a significant role in the formation of intra-annual (inter-monthly) deviations of the methane and carbon dioxide content in the near-surface layer from long-term trends, namely, vertical mixing of air, CO2 absorption on the Earth's surface, destruction of methane in the troposphere in reactions with hydroxyl.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2020-3-05-21first seen 2026-08-02 18:48:33