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Marchetti's Cold Case Energy Model Needs Revisiting: Competing energy sources in an evolutionary process of substitution?

マルケッティの冷ケースエネルギーモデルの再考：進化的な置換プロセスにおける競合するエネルギー源？ (AI 翻訳)

MORELLI, Rocco

Zenodoプレプリント2026-05-13#エネルギー転換Origin: EU
DOI: 10.17613/3ez2c-hm173
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20158989
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、Cesare MarchettiとNebojsa Nakicenovicが1979年にIIASAで開発したエネルギー源のロジスティック置換モデルを批判的に分析する。コールドケースアプローチを用い、2024-2025年の実際のデータと比較し、地政学的要因や技術的加速による乖離を明らかにする。石炭の回復力、天然ガスの橋渡し燃料としての役割、再生可能エネルギーの爆発的成長を指摘。さらに、豊かさのパラドックスやAIのエネルギー需要の影響を考察し、研究開発における国家の役割再考を促す。

English

This paper critically analyzes the logistic substitution model of energy sources by Marchetti and Nakicenovic (1979). Using a cold case approach, it compares historical projections with actual data for 2024-2025, highlighting divergences due to geopolitical factors and technological accelerations. It notes coal's resilience, natural gas as a bridge, and exponential renewables growth. It explores the paradox of abundance and AI's energy hunger, calling for reconsideration of state role in advanced nuclear and LENR research.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は、エネルギー転換の長期的なモデル化の限界を明らかにし、日本のエネルギー政策にも示唆を与える。特に、石炭の持続や再生可能エネルギーの急速な普及、そしてAIのエネルギー需要増加は、日本のGX戦略における重要な考慮事項である。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a timely critique of long-term energy transition models, relevant to global discussions on energy system change. It challenges the assumption of orderly substitution and emphasizes geopolitical and technological disruptions. The discussion of AI's energy competition and the role of state intervention in cutting-edge energy research offers insights for policymakers worldwide.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:This paper offers a critical reassessment of a classic energy model, highlighting the importance of considering geopolitical and technological disruptions in long-term energy forecasting.

🏢実務担当者:The paper underscores the need for flexible energy strategies that account for unpredictable shifts, as well as the potential competition between AI data centers and other energy uses.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note the critique of assuming smooth transitions and the call for state involvement in advanced nuclear and LENR research to ensure energy security and public rights.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract This paper critically and heuristically analyzes the famous model of logistical substitution of energy sources developed by Cesare Marchetti and Nebojsa Nakicenovic at IIASA in 1979. Using a "Cold Case" approach, the study compares historical projections with actual data on the global energy mix in 2024-2025, highlighting the profound divergences caused by geopolitical factors and technological accelerations that were unforeseeable at the time. While the original model assumed an orderly and symmetrical transition to nuclear dominance, the current reality shows the "resilience" of coal, the continued role of natural gas as a bridge fuel, and the exponential explosion of renewables. The work also explores the paradox of abundance: the shift from the Age of Scarcity to the Age of Superimposability, where the sum of technological potentials vastly exceeds human needs, shifting the issue from resource availability to the management of competition and profit. Finally, the article addresses the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, whose energy hunger threatens to compete with habitual human uses, and the need to reconsider the role of the state in cutting-edge research (advanced nuclear power and LENR). The article concludes that overcoming Western democratic regimes may depend on the ability to guarantee energy as a public right, avoiding the creation of artificial scarcity induced by speculative dynamics, and critically reconsidering the failure of privatizations in strategic sectors.

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