WAPP地域におけるエネルギー転換経路

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:複数モデルの相互検証と炭素予算別シナリオ設計の手法が、脱炭素経路研究の再現性・整合性評価の参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:新興国電力市場への投資・調達を検討する企業は、系統投資ニーズと越境取引の不確実性を事業リスク評価に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:地域電力プールと単一市場の設計、農村電化・都市交通を含む包摂的移行政策の立案に示唆を与える。

This deliverable D5.2 “Energy Transition Pathways in West Africa” is presented as a combined report bringing together two complementary studies conducted under WP5 of the OpenMod4Africa project: a national-level case study in Senegal, led by CT2S (Part I), and a regional case study at the scale of the ECOWAS/WAPP power pool (Part II). Part I, led by CT2S, develops an integrated multi-model assessment of Senegal's energy transition to 2050 across three Business-As-Usual, Intermediate Decarbonization and Net Zero scenarios. Using GENeSYS-MOD, it quantifies the evolving power generation mix, the role of gas, solar PV and onshore wind, industrial and transport decarbonization pathways, system costs and emissions trajectories. These results are cross-validated with openTEPES and plan4RES to test power system feasibility, investment adequacy and operational flexibility under both deterministic and stochastic hydrological conditions. The study extends beyond grid-connected generation to rural electrification, using OnSSET to identify least-cost electrification technologies for Senegal and, for replicability, Ghana, and to quantify the investment requirements for universal electricity access across West Africa. It further examines the decarbonization of urban mobility through the GTFS4EV model, assessing PV-based charging integration for Dakar's BRT and bus networks (Dakar Dem Dikk and AFTU/TATA), including grid impacts, battery sizing, economic and environmental benefits, and reductions in air pollution exposure. The part closes with cross-cutting lessons on model consistency and complementarity, and a dedicated analysis of gender and social inclusion implications of the transition. Part II presents the regional case study conducted at WAPP/ECOWAS scale, characterizing the current energy system, generation mix and electricity access across the fourteen WAPP member countries, and the transformation targeted by the WAPP Master Plan toward a least-cost, renewable-led generation fleet and an integrated regional transmission backbone and single electricity market. Using GENeSYS-MOD, it models the regional energy system to 2050 under the same three BAU, ID and NZ scenarios, examining cross-border electricity trade, new installed capacity, emissions and system costs at regional scale. These results are then validated at higher spatial and temporal resolution with openTEPES for the 2030 horizon, covering generation, storage and transmission investment needs, generation mix and demand coverage by country, trade balances, network utilization, marginal prices and cost outcomes, including a comparison of scenarios under alternative carbon budgets.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23496200first seen 2026-10-21 04:11:31 · last seen 2026-10-24 04:12:29