Energy transition shocks and tourism resilience in Spain: A quantile connectedness analysis (2019–2024)
エネルギー転換ショックとスペインの観光レジリエンス：分位連結性分析（2019～2024年） (AI 翻訳)
Orlando Joaqui-Barandica, Jesús Heredia-Carroza, Sebastián López-Estrada, E. Parra-López
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、2019年から2024年のスペインを対象に、観光活動、エネルギー転換変数、マクロ経済的不確実性の間の動的な相互依存関係を分析した。分位ベクトル自己回帰モデルに基づく分位連結性アプローチを用いて、観光排出量、ジェット燃料価格、炭素価格、インフレ、不確実性指標間の非対称で状態依存的な波及効果を捉えた。結果は、観光・エネルギーの連関が高度に相互接続されたシステムを形成し、その強度は市場環境によって変化することを示す。危機時にはエネルギーと不確実性変数がショックの送信者として支配的となる一方、回復期には航空観光が影響力を取り戻し、システムの再活性化に寄与する。炭素価格は変動性の源から安定化メカニズムへと変化する。
English
This study analyzes the dynamic interdependence between tourism activity, energy transition variables, and macroeconomic uncertainty in Spain from 2019 to 2024. Using a Quantile Connectedness Approach based on a QVAR model, it captures asymmetric spillovers among tourism emissions, jet fuel and carbon prices, inflation, and uncertainty. Results show that the tourism-energy nexus forms a highly interconnected system; during crises, energy and uncertainty dominate as shock transmitters, while in recovery phases, air tourism regains influence. Carbon pricing evolves from a volatility source to a stabilizing mechanism.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
スペインの事例ではあるが、炭素価格が観光セクターに与える影響を示しており、日本の観光政策や航空業界における炭素価格導入の議論に示唆を与える。特に、カーボンプライシングが短期的な変動要因から長期的な安定化要因へと変化する点は、日本のGX推進における炭素価格設計に参考となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on how carbon pricing interacts with tourism and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is relevant for global discussions on transition finance and climate risk. The quantile connectedness methodology offers a framework to assess nonlinear spillovers, applicable to other regions. The finding that carbon pricing can shift from a volatility source to a stabilizing mechanism supports the case for credible and phased carbon pricing policies globally.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers studying the energy-tourism nexus can adopt the quantile connectedness approach to analyze asymmetric spillovers in other contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Practitioners in tourism and energy sectors can use the insights to anticipate how carbon price shocks affect tourism demand and operational costs.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can note the evolving role of carbon pricing as a stabilization tool, informing the design of carbon pricing mechanisms aligned with tourism recovery.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study analyzes the dynamic interdependence between tourism activity, energy transition variables, and macroeconomic uncertainty in Spain from 2019 to 2024. Using a Quantile Connectedness Approach based on a Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model, it captures asymmetric and state-dependent spillovers among tourism emissions, jet fuel and carbon prices, inflation, and uncertainty indicators. Results show that the tourism–energy nexus forms a highly interconnected system whose intensity varies across market regimes. During crises, energy and uncertainty variables dominate as shock transmitters, while in recovery phases, air tourism regains influence, supporting system reactivation. Jet fuel and carbon prices are key transmission channels linking tourism and macroeconomic volatility, with inflation and policy uncertainty amplifying effects. Carbon pricing evolves from a volatility source to a stabilizing mechanism as transition expectations consolidate. The findings highlight asymmetric resilience in tourism and provide insights into policies aligning tourism recovery with energy transition and climate goals.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166261443062first seen 2026-05-05 19:13:35
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