プリム・レックス理論とエネルギー転換：化石燃料から再生可能エネルギーへの八次元相転移ガバナンス——プリム・レックス理論の八次元フレームワークとCLL相転移早期警戒モデルに基づくエネルギー転換経路計画フレームワーク

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a new theoretical framework for modeling energy transition dynamics, potentially useful for further empirical testing.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a structured approach for corporate energy transition planning and risk assessment, though practical application requires further validation.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests a tool for monitoring energy transition progress and identifying critical intervention points, relevant for national energy policy design.

全球能源转型正站在一个历史性的门槛上，从“化石燃料时代”跨越到“可再生能源时代”。根据IEA《世界能源投资2026》报告，2026年全球能源投资预计将达到3.4万亿美元，其中清洁能源投资约为2.2万亿美元，化石燃料投资约为1.2万亿美元——清洁能源投资现已接近化石燃料投资的两倍。IRENA数据显示，2025年全球可再生能源装机容量新增692 GW，总装机容量达到5,149 GW，占全球发电总装机容量的49%。然而，煤炭投资却反常地上升至1,800亿美元，为2012年以来的最高水平；天然气投资达到3,300亿美元，为近十年来的最高水平。这种“新旧能源并行扩张”的格局揭示出，能源转型并非平滑的线性替代过程，而是一个充满相变风险的复杂系统演化。基于Prim-Lex理论的八维框架，本文首次将CLL（资本市场凝聚度）相变预警模型应用于能源转型路径规划。本文逐维度阐述了能源转型治理中八个维度各自的计算原理和数据收集方法。通过三个实证案例——全球可再生能源“三倍”目标、煤炭投资的悖论式增长，以及发展中国家能源转型融资缺口——展示了CLL相变预警模型在识别能源系统“临界窗口”中的标准化应用路径，为全球能源治理从“被动应对”向“主动相变管理”的转变提供了可量化、可编程、可审计的数学语言和决策工具。

AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。

The global energy transition stands at a historic threshold, crossing from the “fossil fuel era” to the “renewable energy era.” According to the IEA World Energy Investment 2026 report, global energy investment is projected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, with clean energy investment at approximately $2.2 trillion and fossil fuel investment at approximately $1.2 trillion—clean energy investment now nearly double that of fossil fuels. IRENA data shows that global renewable energy capacity added 692 GW in 2025, reaching a total of 5,149 GW, accounting for 49% of global installed power capacity. However, coal investment has paradoxically risen to $180 billion, the highest since 2012; natural gas investment reached $330 billion, the highest in nearly a decade. This pattern of “parallel expansion of old and new energy” reveals that the energy transition is not a smooth linear substitution process, but a complex system evolution fraught with phase-transition risks. Based on the eight-dimensional framework of Prim-Lex Theory, this paper applies, for the first time, the CLL (Capital Market Condensation Level) phase-transition early warning model to energy transition pathway planning. This paper elaborates, dimension by dimension, the calculation principles and data collection methods for each of the eight dimensions in energy transition governance. Using three empirical cases——the global renewable energy “tripling” target, the paradoxical growth of coal investment, and the energy transition financing gap in developing countries——it demonstrates the standardized application pathway of the CLL phase-transition early warning model in identifying the “critical window” of energy systems, providing a quantifiable, programmable, and auditable mathematical language and decision-making tool for the transition of global energy governance from “passive response” to “active phase-transition management.”

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21426504first seen 2026-08-07 04:55:53 · last seen 2026-08-07 04:56:12