Long-Term Socioeconomic Damages Attributable to Future Wildfire Carbon Emissions Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5
SSP2-4.5およびSSP5-8.5シナリオ下での将来の山火事炭素排出に起因する長期的な社会経済的損害 (AI 翻訳)
Wanying Tian, Aobo Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この研究は、PAGE-ICE統合評価モデルを用いて、気候変動下での山火事CO2排出に起因する長期的な社会経済的損害を定量化した。2100年までに、山火事排出は大気中CO2濃度を最大56.1 ppm上昇させ、0.169～0.233°Cの追加的な温暖化をもたらす。年間損害額は最大8.11兆ドルに達し、累積割引損害額は144兆ドルと推定された。損害は地域間で不均一であり、アフリカ・中東およびインド・東南アジアで最大となった。
English
This study uses the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model to quantify long-term socioeconomic damages from wildfire CO2 emissions under climate change. By 2100, wildfire emissions increase atmospheric CO2 by up to 56.1 ppm and cause additional warming of 0.169–0.233°C. Annual damages reach 8.11 trillion USD, with discounted cumulative damages of 144 trillion USD. Damages are unevenly distributed, heaviest in Africa/Middle East and India/Southeast Asia.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本研究は山火事排出の経済コストを定量化し、日本における気候変動適応策や森林管理政策への示唆を与える。ただし、日本の排出枠や開示制度（SSBJ）への直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper provides upper-bound estimates of wildfire carbon costs, relevant for global climate-economy assessments and residual emission accounting. It underscores the need to integrate wildfire emissions into TCFD/ISSB risk disclosures and transition planning.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Quantifies the significant economic damages from wildfire carbon emissions, highlighting the need to include them in integrated assessment models.
🏢実務担当者:Can use these damage estimates to inform climate risk assessments and natural capital accounting, especially for sectors exposed to wildfire risk.
🏛政策担当者:Supports stronger fire management and land-use policies by demonstrating the large long-term costs of wildfire emissions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Wildfires are an increasingly important carbon source under climate change, yet their long-term climate-mediated socioeconomic costs remain poorly quantified. Here, we used the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model to estimate the economic damages attributable to projected wildfire CO2 emissions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Wildfire emissions were introduced through paired simulations with and without these emissions, allowing their marginal effects on atmospheric CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, warming, and damages to be quantified. By 2100, wildfire emissions increased atmospheric CO2 by 50.7 ppm under SSP2-4.5 and 56.1 ppm under SSP5-8.5, producing additional warming of 0.233 °C and 0.169 °C, respectively. Although wildfire emissions were higher under SSP5-8.5, their marginal climate effects were stronger under SSP2-4.5 because additional CO2 produces a larger forcing increment when background concentrations are lower. By 2100, wildfire-attributable annual damages reached 8.11 trillion USD yr−1 under SSP2-4.5 and 6.63 trillion USD yr−1 under SSP5-8.5. Discounted cumulative damages were 144.0 and 130.3 trillion USD, respectively. Damages were unevenly distributed, with the largest absolute losses in Africa and the Middle East and India and Southeast Asia. These upper-bound estimates indicate that wildfire carbon emissions can impose substantial long-term socioeconomic costs and should be more explicitly represented in climate–economy assessments, residual-emission accounting, and sustainability-oriented fire and land-management strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18146952first seen 2026-07-24 05:49:25
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