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D8諸国における再生可能エネルギー比率がCO₂排出に与える影響

The Impact of Renewable Energy Share on CO₂ Emissions in D8 Countries (原題)

Büyükoğlu, Burak

Zenodoプレプリント2026-09-04#再生可能エネルギー対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22288458
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/22288458
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

D8諸国を対象に、再生可能エネルギーの比率がCO2排出に与える影響をパネルデータで分析。電力部門の再生可能エネルギー比率は有意な削減効果を示さないが、総最終エネルギー消費に占める再生可能エネルギーの比率は排出削減に寄与することを発見。エネルギー転換を電力部門に限定せず、全体のエネルギー構成の変革が重要であると示唆。

English

This panel study of D8 countries (2000-2025) finds that the share of renewables in total final energy consumption significantly reduces CO2 emissions, while the share in electricity generation alone does not. Results suggest that energy transition must extend beyond the power sector to achieve meaningful mitigation, with heterogeneous effects across countries.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策では、電力部門の脱炭素化に加え、運輸・産業部門を含む最終エネルギー消費全体での再生可能エネルギー導入拡大が求められる。本研究成果は、日本のエネルギー基本計画やGX推進戦略における部門横断的な再生可能エネルギー政策の重要性を裏付けるエビデンスとなる。

In the global GX context

This study provides empirical evidence that renewable energy deployment in end-use sectors is crucial for emission reductions, complementing global efforts under the Paris Agreement. It informs policy debates on sectoral coverage of renewable energy targets and supports the need for comprehensive energy transition strategies beyond electricity.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the differential impact of renewable energy definitions on emissions, useful for refining energy transition models.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of expanding renewable energy use beyond electricity to meet corporate decarbonization targets.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests that policies should promote renewables across all energy-consuming sectors, not just power generation.

📄 Abstract(原文)

This study investigates the impact of the share of renewable energy on carbon emissions in D8 countries over the period 2000–2025, employing a panel data framework. The empirical analysis is conducted within a two-way fixed effects model, accounting for cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation through the use of country-clustered and Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. The renewable energy variable is operationalized in two distinct ways: as the share of renewable sources in electricity generation and as the share of renewables in total final energy consumption, each examined separately to ensure robustness. The findings indicate that the results are sensitive to the definition of the renewable energy indicator. While the lagged share of renewables in electricity generation does not exhibit a statistically significant mitigating effect on emissions, an increase in the share of renewables in total energy consumption is associated with a reduction in carbon emissions. These results suggest that limiting the energy transition to the electricity sector alone may be insufficient; rather, a comprehensive transformation of the overall energy mix appears to be more consequential for environmental outcomes. The estimated coefficients for income and its squared term display signs consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, implying a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. Moreover, the strong and statistically significant effect of total energy consumption on emissions underscores the importance of scale effects in shaping environmental pressures. Country-specific assessments further reveal a heterogeneous pattern of energy transition across D8 economies. In countries with a high dependence on fossil fuels, expansions in renewable energy capacity provide only limited contributions to emission reductions. By contrast, economies that have achieved a more balanced restructuring of their energy portfolios demonstrate comparatively stronger environmental performance. Overall, the study highlights the necessity of broadening the sectoral scope of renewable energy policies and reducing structural dependence on fossil fuels to achieve meaningful emission mitigation.

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