統合評価モデルにおける産業エネルギー
Industrial energy in integrated assessment models (原題)
Michele Manfroni, Louis Delannoy, Sandrine Mathy, Baptiste Andrieu, Hugo Le Boulzec, François Verzier, Olivier Vidal
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本稿は、統合評価モデル（IAM）における産業エネルギーの扱いを批判的に検討し、エネルギーと物質の連関、資本ストックへの体化エネルギー、採掘や資源品質低下による上流制約を十分に捉えていないと指摘。需要駆動・価格制約型のモジュールはEROI低下や生物物理的制約を無視し、大規模転換に必要な労働・材料・土地・資本の再配分を表現できない。社会代謝的枠組みへの統合と探索的ツールとしての活用を提案する。
English
This chapter critically examines industrial energy representation in integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting insufficient capture of energy-material nexus, embodied energy, and upstream constraints. Demand-driven, price-constrained modules neglect declining EROI and biophysical limits, hindering assessment of large-scale transitions. Proposes integrating IAMs within a socio-metabolic framework and using them as exploratory tools for robust policy assessment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、産業部門の脱炭素化が重要課題であり、モデルによる経路評価が政策立案に活用される。本稿の批判的視点は、日本のエネルギー・産業モデルの限界を認識し、より頑健な政策評価に資する。
In the global GX context
Globally, IAMs underpin climate policy assessments, yet their limitations in capturing biophysical constraints are increasingly recognized. This paper contributes to improving model robustness for transition policy, relevant to IPCC and national assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:モデル改良の方向性と限界を理解するための批判的レビューとして有用。
🏢実務担当者:産業脱炭素戦略の策定時に、モデル結果の不確実性を認識するための背景知識。
🏛政策担当者:政策評価におけるモデル利用の限界を認識し、補完的アプローチを検討する材料。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This chapter critically examines how industrial energy is represented in prominent process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs), with a focus on the techno-economic accounting structures that shape their treatment of energy-industry feedbacks. While recent modeling efforts have increased the granularity of industrial subsectors and processes, current IAMs still exhibit substantial methodological limitations that reduce their ability to assess the biophysical implications of decarbonization. Drawing on industrial ecology, societal metabolism and net energy analysis, we show that IAMs insufficiently capture the energy-material nexus, embodied energy in capital stocks, technological interdependencies and the upstream constraints associated with mining and declining resource quality. IAMs&s; reliance on demand-driven, price-constrained energy modules rooted in cost–supply curves systematically neglects declining energy return on investment (EROI), biophysical performance and the reallocations of labor, materials, land and capital required for large-scale transitions. As a consequence, models struggle to close biophysical budgets across scales and to represent system-wide constraints, trade dynamics and potential bottlenecks in hard-to-abate sectors. We argue that integrating IAMs within a broader socio-metabolic framework – and using them as exploratory rather than predictive tools – can enhance their capacity to illuminate the structural implications of transition policies. Such an approach would help ensure more robust assessments of industrial decarbonization pathways while acknowledging the deep uncertainty, modeling limits and potential systemic disruptions associated with the energy transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003598206-18first seen 2026-08-20 04:33:28
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