Climate change and Plasmodium vivax Malaria Risk in Brazil: Developing adaptive tool for Brazilian Municipalities
ブラジルにおける気候変動と三日熱マラリア原虫によるマラリアリスク：自治体向け適応ツールの開発 (AI 翻訳)
Tatiane C. M. Sousa, Sandra S. Hacon, George U. Pedra, Cassia M. G. Lemos, Maria Anice M. Sallum, Simone Ladeia-Andrade, Fabiane B. Reis, Gustavo Arcoverde, Lincoln Alves, Jean Ometto
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、ブラジルの全自治体を対象に、気候変動シナリオ（RCP4.5およびRCP8.5）下での2030年と2050年のマラリアリスクを評価した。AdaptaBrasil MCTIアプローチを用い、気温、相対湿度、SDIIを気候脅威指標として、脆弱性・曝露・気候脅威の3指標からリスクを算出。結果、アマゾン地域でリスクが最も高く、2050年には南東部や北東部へ拡大。最高気温の上昇が最も影響力が大きい。
English
This study assesses malaria risk in all Brazilian municipalities under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2030 and 2050 using the AdaptaBrasil MCTI approach. It combines Vulnerability, Exposure, and Climate Threat indices, finding that the Amazon region faces the highest risk, expanding to other regions by 2050. Maximum temperature increase is the most influential factor. The study informs climate adaptation and public health strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はブラジルを対象としており、日本のGX文脈に直接関連しない。しかし、気候適応計画のためのリスク評価手法は、日本の自治体における気候変動適応策の参考となり得る。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a framework for climate risk assessment applied to public health, demonstrating the use of multi-criteria indices under climate scenarios. It contributes to the global dialogue on integrating health into climate adaptation planning, relevant for countries facing similar climate-sensitive diseases.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers in climate-health modeling will find the multilevel analysis and index construction methodology valuable.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers in climate adaptation and public health can use the risk maps to prioritize interventions in vulnerable municipalities.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change impacts ecosystems and health sectors, increasing the incidence of climate-sensitive diseases like malaria, mainly in tropical countries. This study assesses malaria risk, particularly related to Plasmodium vivax, under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the AdaptaBrasil MCTI approach, which supports decision-makers in enhancing climate adaptation strategies. A multilevel analysis was employed to identify key climate variables influencing malaria incidence (temperature, relative humidity, and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII)). A logistic Binary Model was applied to estimate the climate threat associated with malaria incidence in all Brazilian municipalities for baseline and future scenarios. The Vulnerability Index, comprising Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity dimensions, highlighted social susceptibility and healthcare access as crucial factors driving higher vulnerability. Road networks and land use factors shaped the Exposure Index, and the Climate Threat Index was based on maximum temperature, SDII, and relative humidity. Under both scenarios, the findings show a growing malaria risk across Brazil, with the most significant impact in the Amazon, expanding to the other regions, mainly the Southeast and Northeast, by 2050. Maximum temperature increases (β = 0.35) emerged as the most influential factor, followed by SDII (β = 0.19) and relative humidity (β = 0.12). These results emphasize the need for targeted public health and environmental interventions to address rising malaria risks, particularly in the Amazon. This study offers critical insights into the relationship between climate change and malaria, informing future policies for climate adaptation and public health preparedness in Brazil.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0014298first seen 2026-06-14 04:32:31 · last seen 2026-06-16 04:41:31
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。