気候金融、イノベーション、ポルトガルにおける低炭素移行：非線形ARDLアプローチによる実証
Climate finance, innovation, and the low-carbon transition in Portugal: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach (原題)
Thi Tuyet Mai Vu, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thu, Thi Lan Anh Nguyen, Huong Giang Luong
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ポルトガルを対象に1990〜2023年の年次データを用い、都市化・貿易開放・経済成長・再生可能エネルギー・イノベーションとCO2排出の非対称な関係をNARDLで分析した。経済成長と都市化の正のショックは排出を増やし、再エネとイノベーションの増加は排出を大きく減らす。再エネ・イノベーションの負のショックは不釣り合いに悪影響を及ぼし、持続可能性の成果が脆弱であることを示す。SDGs 7・9・11・13に資する政策提言を行う。
English
Using 1990–2023 annual data for Portugal, this study applies a Nonlinear ARDL framework to examine asymmetric links among urbanization, trade openness, growth, renewable energy, innovation, and CO2 emissions. Positive shocks to growth and urbanization raise emissions, while renewable energy and innovation substantially reduce them; negative shocks to renewables and innovation have disproportionately adverse effects. Trade shows mixed effects, initially raising emissions but supporting long-run reductions via technology diffusion. Policy recommendations target SDGs 7, 9, 11, and 13.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業・政策担当者にとっては、再エネとイノベーションへの投資が排出削減に効く一方、その停滞が環境悪化を招くという非対称性の知見が参考になる。SSBJ・有報での気候関連開示や移行計画の根拠として、マクロ経済ショックと排出の非線形関係を理解する材料となる。
In the global GX context
This paper adds to the global empirical literature on the macro drivers of decarbonization, showing that the environmental benefits of renewable energy and innovation are asymmetric and fragile. It offers evidence relevant to transition finance and policy design, though it does not directly engage TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks. For international readers, it provides a country-level case of aligning growth with low-carbon transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:非対称ARDL手法を用いたマクロ環境経済分析の実証例として、再エネ・イノベーションの非線形効果を検証する研究に有用。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ・イノベーション投資の排出削減効果と、その停滞リスクを定量的に示す参考情報。
🏛政策担当者:再エネとイノベーションへの継続的支援が排出削減に不可欠であり、政策の非対称な影響を考慮した設計が必要。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Balancing economic development with environmental sustainability remains a critical challenge for many European economies pursuing low-carbon transitions. Although Portugal has made substantial progress in renewable energy deployment and technological innovation, the environmental impacts of economic growth, urbanization, and trade openness remain complex. They may exhibit asymmetric responses to policy and market shocks. Therefore, this study investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationships among urbanization (URB), trade openness (TRD), economic growth (EG), renewable energy (RE), innovation (INNO), and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Portugal using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. Annual time-series data covering the period 1990–2023 were employed to examine both long-run and short-run asymmetries in the environmental effects of these macroeconomic factors. The empirical findings reveal that positive shocks in EG and URB significantly increase CO₂ emissions, whereas increases in RE consumption and INNO substantially reduce environmental degradation. TRD exhibits mixed effects; while trade expansion initially increases emissions through higher production activity, it contributes to long-run emissions reductions through technology diffusion and cleaner trade composition. The results further indicate that negative shocks to RE and INNO have disproportionately adverse environmental consequences, highlighting the fragility of sustainability gains. These findings demonstrate Portugal’s progress in aligning economic development with RE transition and INN-driven climate strategies. The study provides novel evidence on the asymmetric effects of economic and policy shocks on environmental quality. It offers policy recommendations that support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 9, 11, and 13.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2026.102205first seen 2026-10-11 04:40:51
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