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A systems dynamics approach to climate change policies in soybean production and transportation in Brazil

ブラジルの大豆生産と輸送における気候変動政策へのシステムダイナミクスアプローチ (AI 翻訳)

Patrícia Regina da Silva Zaluski, Mauricio Uriona-Maldonado, Lucila Maria de Souza Campos

Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-06-07#サプライチェーン経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.14488/bjopm.2978.2026
原典: https://doi.org/10.14488/bjopm.2978.2026
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、ブラジルの大豆サプライチェーンにおける輸送政策と持続可能な農業実践の複合効果を評価するため、システムダイナミクスに基づく統合評価モデルを開発した。シミュレーションの結果、国家物流計画(PNL35)はCO2排出量を最大23%削減する可能性があるが、物流コストが課題である。また、不耕起農法や法定保護区の拡大は炭素隔離を促進し、輸送排出の一部を相殺できることを示した。これにより、輸送インフラ計画と持続可能な農業の統合がブラジルの脱炭素目標達成に重要であることが示唆された。

English

This study develops an integrated assessment model based on system dynamics to evaluate combined effects of transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices on the soybean supply chain in Brazil. Results show that the National Logistics Plan (PNL35) can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 23% but is constrained by logistics costs. Expansion of no-tillage systems and legal reserves enhances carbon sequestration, offsetting some transport emissions. The integration of transport infrastructure planning with sustainable farming practices is crucial for Brazil's decarbonization goals.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

ブラジルは日本の主要な大豆輸入先の一つであり、本研究成果は日本の食品企業や商社がサプライチェーン全体のGHG排出削減を検討する際の参考となる。特にScope 3排出量の算定・管理において、輸送と農業慣行の両面からのアプローチは有用である。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of integrated transport and agricultural policies for decarbonizing supply chains, aligning with global efforts under the Paris Agreement. It offers a modeling framework that can be adapted to other commodity supply chains, relevant for ISSB-aligned disclosure of Scope 3 emissions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:The system dynamics modeling approach offers a replicable framework for assessing integrated policy impacts on supply chain emissions, contributing to IAM literature.

🏢実務担当者:Agribusiness managers can use the insights on how transport infrastructure and sustainable farming practices jointly reduce carbon footprints, supporting science-based target setting.

🏛政策担当者:The study demonstrates that coordinated logistics and land-use policies can achieve significant emission reductions, informing national decarbonization pathways.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Goal: The growing demand for food and the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions require sustainable solutions in the agricultural sector, particularly in the transportation of commodities such as soybeans. This study evaluates the combined impact of transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices on the soybean supply chain in Brazil, utilizing an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on System Dynamics (SD). Design/methodology/approach: The model simulates various public policy scenarios, including the National Logistics Plan (PNL35), alongside agricultural practices such as No-Tillage Systems (NTS) and the Legal Reserve Law (LRL). Results: The results indicate that PNL35 has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 23%, albeit constrained by logistical costs. The expansion of NTS and LRL enhances carbon sequestration, offsetting a portion of transport emissions. Limitations of the investigation: A limitation of this study is that it does not fully account for infrastructure constraints and dependence on external funding, which may pose significant financial and regulatory barriers to the practical implementation of the proposed strategies. Practical implications: The study provides practical insights for policymakers and agribusiness managers by showing that integrating transport infrastructure planning with sustainable farming practices can significantly reduce Brazil’s soybean supply chain emissions and support national decarbonization goals. Originality/Value: The study underscores the importance of integrating transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices to achieve decarbonization targets in the sector.

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