Modelling maritime GHG emission measures impact assessment: A case study for container shipping by system dynamics
システムダイナミクスによる海事GHG排出対策影響評価：コンテナ海運のケーススタディ (AI 翻訳)
Selen Uygur, Pelin Bolat, Gizem Kayisoglu, Emre Düzenli, Firat Bolat, O. Arslan, R. Wei, Feng Zhou, Ying Ming Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、IMOのEEDI、SEEMP、CIIなどの政策を考慮したシステムダイナミクスモデルを用いて、コンテナ海運のGHG排出削減対策を評価した。平均船速を15ノットに抑える短期的対策や、HFO全廃とLNG・メタノール・アンモニアへの積極的燃料転換が2050年までの排出削減に有効であることを示した。燃料価格や炭素税などの市場メカニズムも補完的に機能する。
English
This paper evaluates GHG emission reduction measures for container shipping using a system dynamics model incorporating IMO policies (EEDI, SEEMP, CII). It finds that short-term speed reduction to 15 knots and aggressive fuel transition from HFO to LNG, methanol, and ammonia can significantly cut emissions by 2050. Market-based instruments like carbon taxes further support decarbonization. The study calls for policy harmonization for long-term sustainability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は世界有数の海運国であり、日本の海運会社はIMO規制や脱炭素燃料への対応が急務。本モデルは日本企業の戦略策定や政策評価に活用可能。
In the global GX context
As a major shipping nation, Japan's shipping companies face pressure to comply with IMO regulations and adopt zero-carbon fuels. This model offers a framework for evaluating policy and technology pathways, relevant to global decarbonization efforts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The system dynamics approach provides a replicable model for analyzing interactions among technology, operations, and policy in maritime decarbonization.
🏢実務担当者:Shipping companies can use the scenario analysis to inform fleet renewal strategies and fuel transition planning.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can leverage the findings to design coherent regulations and market-based instruments for shipping decarbonization.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The shipping industry is responsible for around 2% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide. This research explores the interaction of technology change, operational approaches, and policy measures in achieving the target for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A simulation model based on the system dynamics of the maritime transport system has been created in accordance with International Maritime Organization (IMO) policies such as the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). Suggested actions to reduce the average speed of ships to 15 knots have shown significant reduction of CO₂ emissions in the short term. Further, the complete phase-out of High Fuel Oil (HFO) and the high uptake of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), methanol, and ammonia in an aggressive fuel transition scenario significantly lowers emissions by 2050. Market-based instruments such as fuel price mechanisms and carbon taxes are complementary methods that enable emissions reduction by encouraging the transition to cleaner fuels. The report calls for the harmonization of policies for the long-term sustainability of shipping. Future studies can expand the model by incorporating economy-related factors such as carbon prices and emissions trading mechanisms to help the industry achieve its 2050 net-zero target.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.21278/brod77207first seen 2026-05-15 17:28:14
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