欧州化石燃料火力発電所の最適退役と遅延コスト
Optimal Retirement of European Fossil Fuel Power Plants and the Cost of Delay (原題)
Imke Rhoden
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
欧州の化石燃料火力850基を対象に、炭素価格が確率的に変動する下での事業者視点の最適退役時期をマルコフ決定過程で分析した。閉鎖閾値は現在のEU排出枠価格を下回り、価格水準の更なる上昇よりも政策の信認（価格安定性）が退役を促す鍵となる。価格の不確実性は閾値を約1割押し上げる。
English
Using a finite-horizon Markov decision process across 850 European fossil units, the study derives plant-level closure thresholds under stochastic carbon prices. Thresholds fall below recent EU allowance prices for all fuels, so further price rises are unlikely to be the binding retirement instrument. Uncertainty raises thresholds by ~10% at unchanged expected price—policy credibility substitutes for price level.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
EU-ETS価格の水準だけでなく「予見可能性」が退役・投資判断を左右することを示す。日本ではGX-ETSやカーボンプライシング制度設計を議論する際、価格の安定性・信認が企業の脱炭素投資判断に与える影響として示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
Directly informs the global debate on carbon price design under EU-ETS and emerging ETS regimes: price credibility, not just level, drives fossil retirement and transition risk. Relevant to ISSB/TCFD transition-plan disclosure and stranded-asset analysis.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:事業者視点の確率的動学モデルで退役閾値を導出する手法は、移行リスク・座礁資産研究の枠組みとして有用。
🏢実務担当者:炭素価格の水準と安定性が火力資産の保有・退役判断や移行計画開示に与える影響を評価できる。
🏛政策担当者:カーボンプライシング制度設計では価格水準に加え予見可能性・信認の確保が退役促進に重要と示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Mitigation pathways require fossil power plants to retire well before the end of their technical lives, yet retirement decisions are typically derived from cost-minimizing system models rather than from the decision facing the plant's owner. This study investigates the carbon price threshold at which closure becomes more advantageous for an operator, as well as the ongoing costs associated with continued emissions. A finite-horizon Markov decision process is solved plant by plant for the European fossil fleet of 850 units, with a carbon price that moves stochastically and plants that age deterministically. The price process is constructed so that widening its range leaves the expected price unchanged, isolating the effect of uncertainty from the effect of price level. Closure thresholds fall below recent EU allowance prices for all fuels considered, and the sensitive range lies well beneath them, so further price increases are unlikely to be the binding instrument for retiring this fleet. Because fuel costs rather than emissions determine how much margin a carbon price must erode, the least carbon-intensive capacity retires first. Uncertainty raises the thresholds by about a tenth at an unchanged expected price: a credibly stable carbon price retires the same capacity as a volatile price roughly a tenth higher. Policy credibility therefore substitutes for price level.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07239first seen 2026-10-28 04:47:32 · last seen 2026-11-04 04:39:19
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