CCUS対応石炭火力投資の解明：空間的リアルオプション・アプローチ
Unlocking CCUS-Ready Coal Power Investments: A Spatial Real Options Approach (原題)
Yun-Long Zhang, Jia-Ning Kang, Lan-Cui Liu, Yi-Zhuo Ji, Song Peng, Yi-Ming Wei
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の19万以上のサイトを対象に、CCUS対応石炭火力の投資可能性を空間的リアルオプションで評価。従来型石炭の投資可能期間は2040年代前半までで、CCUS統合により経済性が変わるが、貯留タイプや輸送距離で差が大きい。発電時間補償が投資補助より効果的で、運転コストが制約となる。政策・投資判断の支援ツールを提供。
English
A spatial real options framework evaluates CCUS-ready coal investments across 194,027 Chinese sites. The investable window for conventional coal closes by the early-to-mid 2040s. CCUS integration reshapes economics, with oil-reservoir storage attractive at short distances and saline-aquifer storage needing operational incentives. Generation-hour compensation outperforms investment subsidies, highlighting operating costs as the binding constraint. Spatiotemporal maps support decision-making.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では石炭火力のフェードアウトが進むが、アジア新興国向けのCCUS技術輸出や、JCM等の国際協調の観点で、中国の実証データは政策・ビジネス戦略に示唆を与える。また、日本のCCUS政策（CCS事業法など）の設計にも参考になる。
In the global GX context
Globally, this study advances CCUS investment analysis by integrating spatial and temporal uncertainty, offering a replicable framework for other coal-dependent economies. It informs policy design on incentives and infrastructure planning, aligning with ISSB/TCFD transition planning and climate risk disclosure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel spatial real options framework that couples site screening with valuation, useful for energy transition modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Offers decision-support maps for identifying CCUS-ready coal investment opportunities and policy incentive design.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the effectiveness of generation-hour compensation over capital subsidies, informing carbon pricing and incentive policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
New coal-fired capacity may still be needed in some economies to support energy security, yet tightening carbon constraints increasingly threaten its long-term investment viability. Designing new plants to be Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)-ready is therefore critical, but existing investment studies largely neglect the spatial factors that shape CCUS investment viability. In this study, we propose a Spatial Real Options (SRO) framework that couples national-scale siting screening with site-level real-options valuation. A national inventory of technically feasible sites across China (n = 194,027) is linked to a real-options model that incorporates temporal uncertainty together with province-specific conditions, CO2 transport distance, and alternative policy instruments. Results show that the nationwide investable window for conventional coal closes by the early-to-mid 2040s. CCUS integration materially reshapes project economics, but outcomes differ substantially across storage options and transport distances: oil-reservoir storage remains economically attractive at short distances, whereas saline-aquifer storage requires operational incentives to become competitive. Generation-hour compensation substantially outperforms investment-cost subsidies, indicating that operating costs, rather than upfront capital, constitute the binding constraint. The resulting spatiotemporal maps provide a practical decision-support tool for identifying where and when CCUS-ready coal investments are most attractive under progressive decarbonization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- primary_source https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11384first seen 2026-08-30 03:56:51
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