Energy transition pathways in Vietnam: an AIM/CGE model analysis of decarbonization strategies
ベトナムのエネルギー転換経路：AIM/CGEモデルによる脱炭素化戦略の分析 (AI 翻訳)
M. Tran, P. H. Nguyen, T. Tran
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はAIM/CGEモデルを用いてベトナムの2050年までのエネルギー転換経路を4シナリオ（BaU、ACT、CTP、MTP）で分析。ACTシナリオでは再生可能エネルギーが一次エネルギーの39.25%を占め、電力構成で太陽光37.11%、風力13.72%に達する。早期政策介入、再生可能エネルギー投資、化石燃料段階的廃止、CCSの戦略的導入が重要と結論。
English
This study uses the AIM/CGE model to analyze four scenarios (BaU, ACT, CTP, MTP) for Vietnam's energy transition to 2050. The ACT scenario achieves the deepest decarbonization with renewables contributing 39.25% of primary energy and solar/wind accounting for 37.11% and 13.72% of electricity capacity. Results emphasize early policy intervention, accelerated renewable investment, fossil fuel phase-out, and strategic CCS deployment.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文で用いられているAIM/CGEモデルは日本の国立環境研究所が開発したものであり、日本とベトナムのエネルギー協力の文脈で重要な知見を提供する。日本の投資家や政策立案者はベトナムのエネルギー転換の時間軸と技術ニーズを理解する上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a detailed scenario analysis for Vietnam, a key emerging economy in the global energy transition. It provides quantifiable benchmarks for renewable energy deployment, CCS necessity, and the costs of delayed action. Valuable for comparing developing country pathways within the global decarbonization discourse.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Energy system modelers can examine the AIM/CGE scenario results for validation and comparison with other models, especially for developing countries.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams assessing Vietnam investments can use the findings on renewable energy growth and CCS requirements for strategic planning.
🏛政策担当者:Vietnamese and international policymakers can leverage the scenario outcomes to design early policy interventions and prioritize renewable and CCS investments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Vietnam is facing severe challenges in its need to industrialize rapidly while simultaneously fulfilling its climate commitments, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of potential energy transition pathways. This study analyses four scenarios using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelling/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model to examine the primary energy structure, electricity capacity, and final energy consumption up to 2050. The Business as Usual (BaU) scenario projects primary energy at 7.0811 EJ by 2050 with fossil fuels accounting for 60.0443%, electricity capacity reaching 88.9101 GW and final energy consumption rising to 4.4014 EJ. This indicates continued reliance on fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the Accelerated Clean Transition (ACT) scenario achieves the most comprehensive transition, with primary energy declines to 5.8140 EJ (17.8941% less than baseline), the electricity capacity increases to 126.8920 GW, and final energy consumption drops to a 26.5679% reduction compared to the BaU scenario. By 2050, renewable energy is forecasted to contribute 39.2501% of primary energy. Additionally, solar and wind energy account for 37.1093% and 13.7230% of the electricity structure, respectively. The Compressed Transition Pathway (CTP) and Minimal Transition Pathway (MTP) scenarios illustrate higher transition costs due to shorter implementation timeframes, with primary energy achieving 5.1022 EJ and 5.7640 EJ. The industrial sector remains the most energy-intensive, accounting for 36.6949%–48.5244% of total final energy by 2050. The outcomes underscore that early policy intervention, accelerated investment in renewable energy, a systematic phase-out of fossil fuels, and strategic deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology are critical to ensure that Vietnam achieves its climate commitments yet maintains energy security and sustains economic growth.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae5571first seen 2026-05-15 20:00:25
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