サブサハラ・アフリカにおける人口高齢化とエネルギー転換：クリーン調理燃料・技術へのアクセスのマクロ経済分析
Demographic Aging and Energy Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Access to Clean Cooking Fuels and Technologies (原題)
Patrice Nnuka Tsekane
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
サブサハラ・アフリカ48か国のパネルデータ（2000-2024）を用い、人口高齢化とクリーン調理エネルギーへのアクセスとの関係を分析。高齢化は逆U字型の影響を与え、高齢者比率4.03%を超えると障壁となる。都市化は直接的な促進要因だが、高齢化の負の影響を加速させる。2050年までに高齢者が3倍に増加し、SDG7達成が危ぶまれる。
English
Using panel data from 48 sub-Saharan African countries (2000-2024), this study analyzes the relationship between demographic aging and access to clean cooking energy. Aging has an inverted U-shaped effect, becoming a barrier beyond 4.03% of seniors. Urbanization is a direct driver but accelerates the negative phase. With seniors tripling by 2050, SDG 7 is at risk.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX文脈では、高齢化社会におけるエネルギー転換の示唆が参考になる。日本の人口高齢化とエネルギー政策の連携に示唆を与えるが、直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global energy transition scholarship by highlighting demographic aging as a barrier to clean cooking access, relevant for SDG 7 and energy policy in aging societies worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:逆U字関係と閾値の特定は、エネルギー転換の人口動態要因の研究に有用。
🏢実務担当者:高齢化世帯向けの補助金設計や都市・農村別戦略に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:高齢化を見据えたエネルギー政策の事前対応の重要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Although sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing a rapid transformation on its population age structure while remaining the global epicenter of the deficit in access to clean cooking, the nexus between demographic aging and energy transition remains largely overlooked. This study analyzes this structural paradox by employing an unbalanced panel of 48 SSA countries over the period 2000–2024 (WDI). We identify two inseparable dimensions of this demographic shift: socio‑cultural inertia dimension, captured by the share of the population aged 65+ (l), and the budgetary constraint measured by the old‑age dependency ratio (). We implement the Lind & Mehlum (2010) test, introduce interaction terms with urbanization, and mobilize several robustness checks (Driscoll‑Kraay, bootstrap, IV-2SLS with lagged instruments and Lewbel (2012) internal instruments). We uncover a robust inverted U‑shaped relationship between demographic aging and the energy transition. Critical tipping points are identified: beyond 4.03% of seniors (65+) (or 8.35 seniors per 100 working‑age individuals), aging initially a catalyst of the energy transition, becomes a structural barrier. The study also reveals the role of urbanization, which, although the most powerful direct lever for clean cooking access, accelerates the downward phase of the curve. In the absence of anticipatory policies, the expected tripling of seniors by 2050 (from 34.5 to 98.4 million) could jeopardize SDG 7. The results withstand demanding robustness tests (Westerlund cointegration, Driscoll‑Kraay, bootstrap). Policies makers must implement modulated subsidies according to household composition, couple energy and social protection, and differentiate urban and rural strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21879025first seen 2026-08-31 04:54:43
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