N-LAS-IAM：国際収支フレームワークにおける気候変動
N-LAS-IAM: Climate change in a balance-of-payments framework (原題)
Wellington Santos de Amorim, Leonardo Flauzino de Souza, Marcelo C. Pereira
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、国際収支制約下の周辺国経済における気候脆弱性を分析する統合評価モデル「N-LAS-IAM」を提示する。Thirlwall–Hussain型成長コアに、グリーン構造変化、資本フロー、ソブリンリスク、気候被害モジュールを再帰的に結合。モンテカルロ実験により、被害の増大が債務の脆弱化・スプレッド上昇・グリーン転換の停滞を招き、閾値を超えると自己強化的な脆弱性レジームが生じることを示す。
English
This paper introduces N-LAS-IAM, a recursive integrated assessment model coupling a Thirlwall–Hussain growth core with endogenous green structural change, capital flows, sovereign risk, and a climate damage module. Monte Carlo experiments show higher damages raise sovereign spreads, tighten financing, widen the export-import elasticity gap, and above a threshold trigger a self-reinforcing fragility regime. Early mitigation may thus yield convex macroeconomic returns for balance-of-payments-constrained economies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業・開示制度への直接の含意は薄いが、気候物理リスクが途上国のソブリンリスク・資本コストに波及する経路を描く点は、日本企業のサプライチェーン・エマージング市場投資リスク評価の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds a macro-financial channel to climate-risk scholarship: physical damages transmit into sovereign spreads and external financing costs, relevant to ISSB/TCFD physical-risk assessment and transition finance in emerging markets. Complements disclosure-focused work by modelling the sovereign and balance-of-payments transmission that corporate disclosures rarely capture.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候被害を国際収支・ソブリンリスクと結合する統合評価モデリングの新手法として参照価値がある。
🏢実務担当者:新興国サプライヤーや投資先の気候関連ソブリン・為替リスク評価の視点を提供する。
🏛政策担当者:周辺国における早期緩和のマクロ経済的便益と、気候被害が政策能力を損なう経路の理解に資する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change is becoming a macro-financial development problem for peripheral economies, yet integrated assessment models remain poorly equipped to analyse climate vulnerability in externally constrained developing countries. Existing heterodox models are mostly closed or global, while balance-of-payments-constrained growth models treat climate in reduced form and incompletely formalise the financial channel. This paper introduces the N-LAS-IAM, a recursive framework coupling a Thirlwall–Hussain growth core with endogenous green structural change, capital flows under financial fragility, sovereign risk, and a climate module mapping global emissions into damages that feed back into profitability and sovereign fragility. Green structural change is endogenised through logistic diffusion equations governing trade income elasticities as functions of green R&D and the real exchange rate. The model is explored via Monte Carlo experiments in which damage intensity and climate-to-risk transmission vary while emissions, policy, and structural-change parameters remain fixed. Three results emerge. First, higher damage produces a more fragile debt regime with elevated spreads, tighter financing, and prolonged deleveraging. Second, damages widen the elasticity gap between exports and imports, slowing green upgrading and locking the economy into lower-sophistication trade patterns. Third, the damage-to-fragility relationship is nonlinear: below a threshold the economy absorbs shocks, but above it a self-reinforcing regime emerges where lower productivity, higher spreads, weaker inflows, and structural regression feed on one another. These findings suggest that physical damages erode policy capabilities by raising external finance costs when green investment is most needed, and that early mitigation may yield convex macroeconomic returns for peripheral economies under balance-of-payments constraints.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109253first seen 2026-10-26 04:40:15 · last seen 2026-11-05 04:52:03
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