世界経済の変容下におけるロシア鉱業・冶金複合体の輸出潜在力と脱炭素化
Export potential and decarbonization of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex amid the transformation of the world economy (原題)
O.I. Dontsova, M.I. Volkhonova, I.N. Abanina, A.A. Novitskaya, Yu.O. Ivanova
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、CBAM導入を背景にロシアの鉱業・冶金セクターの輸出競争力と脱炭素化の適応経路を分析。鉄鋼生産の炭素強度が世界平均を24%上回り、CBAM証書価格に基づく直接炭素負荷が鋼1トンあたり139～173ユーロに達すると試算。市場多様化、技術的炭素強度削減、国内炭素ユニット制度の輸出対応の3方向を提言。
English
This study analyzes the export competitiveness and decarbonization pathways of Russia's mining and metallurgical sector under CBAM. It finds steel carbon intensity exceeds the world average by 24%, with direct carbon costs reaching EUR 139-173 per tonne under CBAM certificate prices. Proposes three adaptation directions: market diversification, technological carbon reduction, and aligning national carbon units with export needs.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の鉄鋼・非鉄金属産業はCBAMやSSBJ開示対応が急務であり、炭素強度ベンチマークと炭素コスト試算の方法論は参考になる。ロシアの事例は、輸出志向産業の脱炭素戦略と国内制度整備の連動を示唆する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a concrete case of CBAM's impact on an export-oriented heavy industry, offering benchmarks for carbon intensity and carbon cost estimation that are relevant for global steel and metals sectors. It highlights the need for aligning national carbon accounting with international mechanisms, a key issue for ISSB-aligned disclosure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical carbon intensity benchmarks and CBAM cost calculations for the Russian metallurgy sector, useful for comparative studies.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a framework for assessing carbon cost exposure and adaptation strategies for export-oriented heavy industry.
🏛政策担当者:Illustrates how CBAM affects national competitiveness and the importance of aligning domestic carbon pricing with global mechanisms.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The study examines the export potential and decarbonization path of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex amid the transformation of the world economy and emergence of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Its relevance is defined by the deepening crisis of the core subsectors in 2023–2025: with coal production stabilizing at about 440 million tonnes, exports recovered to 211 million tonnes by the end of 2025 (+7.5% compared to 2024), yet the net financial result of the coal industry went down from a profit of RUB 374.7 billion in 2023 to losses of RUB 112.6 billion in 2024 and RUB 408 billion in 2025 (a 3.6-fold increase in losses), while the share of profitable companies fell from 68.5% to 33.9%. Crude steel output declined from 76.0 million tonnes in 2023 to 67.8 million tonnes in 2025 (a seven-year low) against the world production of 1,849 million tonnes (−2%). The hypothesis is that the competitiveness of the Russian mining and metallurgical complex is determined not by the volume of physical supplies, but by the capacity to reduce the specific carbon intensity of products and to diversify sales markets. The objective is to justify directions for adapting the export-oriented Russian mining and metallurgical complex to decarbonization of the world economy on the basis of production, export, financial, and emission indicators. The methods applied include comparative subsector analysis, industry benchmarking of the carbon intensity, and indicator analysis of the emission load. It was established that the carbon intensity of blast-furnace–and- oxygen converter steelmaking (2.30 t of CO2-eq./t) exceeds the world average (1.85) by 24% and it is 1.53 times higher than the direct reduction using the electric-arc furnace method (1.50); with the CBAM certificate price of EUR 75.36/t of CO2 (Q1 2026) and full coverage of the emissions (by 2034) the direct carbon load will reach EUR 139–173 per tonne of steel; ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy together generate 28% of the Russian greenhouse gas emissions. Three adaptation directions are justified, i.e. diversification of markets and logistics, technological reduction of the carbon intensity, and alignment of the national carbon units system with the export agenda.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.30686/1609-9192-2026-4-93-100first seen 2026-08-24 05:47:50 · last seen 2026-09-08 05:41:54
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