気候変動と世界の生産国におけるトウモロコシ価格：影響評価と緩和戦略
Climate Change and Maize Prices in Global Producing Countries: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Strategies (原題)
Xinyi Zhang, Yu Jing, Chunhui Ma, Ying Zhang, Junguo Hua
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
1992〜2023年の39主要生産国を対象に、二方向固定効果モデルで気候変動がトウモロコシ実質価格に与える影響を評価。生育期気温と価格には15.3℃付近を転換点とするU字関係があり、猛暑日シェアの1標準偏差増は実質価格を約11.9%押し上げる。干ばつ影響は生産規模が大きい国で強く、猛暑の価格影響は純輸出国に集中し世界市場へ波及する。
English
Using a two-way fixed-effects model across 39 major producers (1992–2023), this study assesses climate impacts on real maize prices. Growing-season temperature shows a U-shaped relationship with a turning point near 15.3°C, and a one-SD rise in extreme heat days raises real prices by ~11.9%. Extreme-heat effects concentrate in net exporters, propagating to world markets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はトウモロコシの大半を輸入に依存し、飼料・食品価格を通じて調達コストと食品インフレに直結する。気候変動による輸入価格上昇リスクは、食品・畜産企業の調達戦略やScope 3サプライチェーン管理の前提条件として読める。
In the global GX context
For global GX scholarship, this links physical climate risk to commodity price transmission, a channel relevant to TCFD/ISSB physical-risk disclosure and transition planning in agri-food value chains. It offers empirical grounding for scenario analysis on food-security-driven inflation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候変動が農産物価格に与える非線形・極端気象主導の影響を定量化した実証研究として参照価値がある。
🏢実務担当者:食品・飼料・畜産企業は、輸入トウモロコシ価格の上昇リスクを調達・価格転嫁・Scope 3管理に織り込む根拠として使える。
🏛政策担当者:食料安全保障と物価安定の観点から、国際的な気候ガバナンスと価格安定化策の必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change poses a growing threat to global food security, with staple crop prices serving as a key transmission channel. This study systematically assesses the impacts of climate change on real maize price levels across 39 major producing countries over 1992–2023, using a two-way fixed-effects model with country-specific trends. Climate conditions are captured by growing-season mean temperature, accumulated precipitation, the share of extreme heat days (above 30 °C), and a drought indicator based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The benchmark results show a significant U-shaped relationship between growing-season temperature and maize price levels, with a turning point near 15.3 °C, implying that further warming raises prices in most producing countries. Extreme events emerge as the dominant driver: a one-standard-deviation increase in the share of extreme heat days is associated with approximately 11.9% (β = 0.610, p < 0.01) increase in real maize prices, and drier growing seasons are associated with modestly higher price. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that development level buffers the price effects of gradual temperature changes, whereas production capacity does not systematically moderate gradual climate shifts; extreme-heat effects are not moderated by either dimension; and drought effects strengthen with production scale. Extreme-heat price impacts are concentrated in net-exporting countries and thus propagate to world markets. These findings imply three policy pathways: coordinated global climate governance, multi-level price stabilization mechanisms, and country-specific support systems to contain climate-induced increases in maize price levels and safeguard global food security.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16192056first seen 2026-09-25 04:47:58
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